Math heavily favors the Braves winning the National League East. Of course, it also favored the Falcons up 28-3, and the Bulldogs up …
Anyway, the Braves carried a 5-1/2 game lead into play Wednesday. They defeated the Cardinals, 7-3, to avoid a sweep. The Phillies faced the Mets later that night.
As hard as it is to imagine, the Braves hold the biggest lead in the National League division races. One wouldn’t think so with the fans’ constant a state of flux, but history does that to you.
Even by Atlanta standards, it would be extraordinarily difficult to botch the NL East. The Phillies will hope they defeat the Mets on Wednesday to own a 5.5-game deficit entering this weekend’s four-game series. If they drop back to 6.5, their long odds become near insurmountable.
Assuming they enter play down 5.5 games, if the Phillies were to take three of four in Atlanta, they would cut it to 3-1/2 games with seven remaining. A sweep would pull them within 1-1/2 games with seven (six for Braves) left.
Either way, the Phillies need to win the series at SunTrust Park. They’re 31-42 on the road, but the Braves’ recurring home woes should give them some level of hope. If the Braves salvage a split, they’ve knocked four days off the calendar without relinquishing ground. If they win the series, it’s over.
The earliest the Braves could clinch is Saturday. These odds clearly favor the Braves, but let’s say the Phillies take three of four.
The Braves then hit the road, where they’re an NL-best 45-30. They have an off-day and three in New York as the Phillies play four in Denver, where the Rockies are fighting for the NL West title. Colorado is 1-1/2 games behind the Dodgers on Wednesday afternoon, with a head-to-head game later that day.
Yet still the Braves will have the upper hand. If the Phillies split in Colorado, they’ve done themselves little favor unless the Braves lose the series against the Mets. Philadelphia could require a sweep in the final three games – home against the Braves – to tie the division.
So for the Braves, even splitting with the Phillies would be an acceptable result. That would make the magic number two, pending the Phillies’ Wednesday result. They could take two of three in Queens - or pair a win with a Phillies lose in Denver - and end the race.
In the Phillies’ optimal situation, they win Wednesday, then take three of four in Atlanta and Colorado to give themselves a chance to win the East at Citizens Bank Park, where they’re at their best. It will realistically require winning six of their eight games on the upcoming road trip.
Understand what the Phillies are facing: The Braves’ magic number is six. Any combination of Braves wins or Phillies losses lowers that number. In other words, if the Braves beat the Phillies Thursday, the number would drop to four.
If the Phillies do go 6-2, even if the Braves swept the Mets, the magic number would be one. Therein lies the importance of Wednesday’s game, where a loss to the Mets eliminates that scenario.
Now, if the Phillies enter play Thursday down 5-1/2 games, then take three of four from the Braves and Colorado, while the Braves take two of three in New York, Philadelphia trails the division by three games. They’d need to sweep the Braves to force a tie. A loss Wednesday also eliminates that possibility.
An uphill climb for the present runner-up, to say the least. The Braves aren’t playing well, make no mistake about it, but their 6-1 western road trip has afforded them breathing room and quite possibly won the division.
And those early season series wins over the Phillies? They’re going to loom very, very large - what happens in April and May does matter.
