True confession: For a while now, I’ve operated on the assumption that the Washington Nationals are going to rouse themselves some week and build a working lead on the Braves. That’s not to say I don’t think the Braves are good – all things considered, they’ve done pretty well – but I see the Nats as having a gear the Braves lack.
This week began as if it might indeed be that time. The Braves lost twice at Turner Field to the sub-.500 Marlins; the Nationals took two in Denver against sub-.500 Colorado. This followed a weekend that saw the Braves lose once to the last-place Phillies while the Nats took a series from the first-place Brewers. Thus did the Braves report for work Wednesday two games back in the National League East, matching their biggest deficit of the season.
For the Braves, the past month has been as gentle as Mary’s littlest lamb. They haven’t played a game against a team with a winning record since June 22. They won nine in a row against a Loiterers’ Row of the Phillies, the Mets and the Diamondbacks; since then, they’d lost eight of 13. The schedule gets tougher starting next week, and we can’t say the Braves have made the most of their chances.
The reason is that the Braves – not to repeat myself – are a good-but-not-great team. Their starting pitching gives them a chance to win every game, or at least those games not started by Mike Minor. Their offense has improved a bit, though much of that surely is a function of playing so many games against bad teams, but they’re still only 27th in runs scored, 25th in batting average and 23rd in on-base percentage.
Not to get all Belichick on you, but the Braves are what they are. They’ve played 100 games. They’ve cut Dan Uggla. They’ve found, sort of, a place in the batting order where B.J. Upton can be of modest use. They’ve gotten astonishing mileage out of Aaron Harang. Through 100 games, they were on pace to finish 87-75. That almost certainly wouldn’t win the East, and it probably wouldn’t suffice to grab one of the two wild cards.
If the goal is to play in October, status quo probably won’t cut it. As of Wednesday, Baseball Prospectus listed the Braves with a 51.5 percent chance of making the playoffs – essentially a coin flip – and levied better odds for five other NL teams. Given that we’re a week from the trade deadline, we ask the obvious question: Can the Braves make a deal before Aug. 1 that will change their team enough to make a difference?
The guess here is that they cannot. This isn’t to say that Frank Wren won’t try – every general manager tries, and Wren tries harder than most – but the Braves don’t have a lot to trade. They’ve already lost three starting pitchers to arm surgery. Nobody wants B.J. Upton, just as nobody would give up anything for Uggla. Their highest-rated pitching prospects, as per Baseball America, are Lucas Sims and J.R. Graham, both of whom have had difficult minor-league seasons.
The Braves need to keep Christian Bethancourt, their highest-rated position prospect, because they aren’t sure if the Evan Gattis bubble will burst. They might consider trading Gattis or Justin Upton or even Jason Heyward, but does a team that can’t hit want to trade one of its hitters? The raft of contract extensions bestowed on younger players over the winter was good for long-range planning but less good for short-team dealing. All those young Braves carry a heftier price tag.
In sum, the Braves aren’t going to trade for David Price, which might be a blessing. The Tampa Bay pitcher can become a free agent after next season, and do the Braves want to sacrifice anything of value for a 14-month rental? Was nothing learned from J.D. Drew and Mark Teixeira?
Back to guessing: Any move Wren makes – and history teaches that he’ll make some move – will be to bolster the bullpen, which has begun to wobble under the strain of working in so many close low-run games, and the bench, which is awful. Such maneuvers might help the Braves win a game or two down the stretch, and one or two games could make a difference. But enough of a difference to matter?
I wish I could tell you I’m optimistic, but I’d be fibbing. I expect the Nationals to win the East. I think the Braves will have a tough time grabbing a wild card. They’ve done pretty well to get to 54-46, but they’ll have to do better. I’m not sure they’re capable.
