Watch enough baseball, hang out in enough clubhouses, talk to enough players, managers and team officials over the years, and you start to feel confident in deciding whether a team is particularly good, whether it has an “it” or two that makes the squad special. Or if something is lacking or the parts just don’t fit, in which case that team might be setting itself and its fans up for disappointment with a smoke-and-mirrors strong start to a season.
Not quite one-fifth of the way into this Braves season, still more than three weeks from Memorial Day and two months from the Fourth of July -- traditional measuring points for such matters -- I’ve already formed a distinct opinion about this Braves team, a conclusion I feel confident jumping to.
This team is for real.
The first-place Braves just won seven of their past eight games on a three-city, 10-game trip, and what made that more impressive was how they responded after losing the first two games at Cincinnati, games in which they looked flat, out of sorts and as lacking in energy as the atmosphere at the mostly empty riverfront ballpark.
In recent years, that would’ve set the tone for a miserable trip for the Braves, who would’ve limped back to Atlanta talking about getting things turned around at home. Then not doing it.
Not this team. There’s positivity, youthful energy and a couldn’t-give-a-(bleep) attitude about what’s happened before. Sure, these players appreciate the franchise’s past, its iconic former stars and not-long-ago divisional dominance. But truth is, many of the most talented players on this team were too young to remember the last time the Braves played in the World Series.
And some weren’t alive when the Braves won the World Series in 1995.
Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka were born in 1997. The Braves last won a playoff series in 2001.
For the first time since I began covering the Braves in 2002, I see a group that has a good chance of doing more than finishing atop the National League East standings. This core, supplemented with a few more that are coming up through the system and perhaps a free agent or two, has what it takes to win the second World Series title since the Braves moved to Atlanta in 1966.
And then maybe a third.
They can do it long before Freddie Freeman’s current contract expires after the 2021 season. If a few things go their way and they can avoid major injuries to key players, the Braves should compete for multiple NL pennants while Freeman is under contract.
Acuna and Albies, the two youngest position players in the majors, give the Braves a pair of legitimate five-tool players at a time when many if not most organizations don’t have one. Albies entered a weekend series against the Giants batting .280 while leading the National League in extra-base hits (23) and tied for the league lead in home runs (10). And playing exceptional defense.
Acuna is the consensus top prospect in baseball and has shown why. Since his debut April 25 he hasn’t just met extraordinary expectations, he’s surpassed them. He hit .382 with five doubles, two tape-measure homers and a 1.138 OPS in his first eight games on the trip that ended Thursday. The Braves won seven of those eight games.
Here’s what Chipper Jones said when I spoke with him about Acuna in January, after I watched Acuna play in the Arizona Fall League and remarked on how he stood out even on a field full of top prospects.
“I’m extremely excited about Acuna,” Jones said, “I think this kid’s going to be the next (Mike) Trout, the next (Bryce) Harper in the next three or four years. I put up some pretty lofty expectations on him; I think this kid’s going to be a top-five player in the game within two or three years. He’s got that kind of ability. He’s got that I-make-the-game-look-easy kind of Andruw Jones feel in the outfield, and he can flat-out rake. He’ll hit the ball out of the ballpark to all fields. I expect him to hit .300, I expect him to steal some bases, and I expect him to play Gold Glove defense. And I expect him to hit in the middle of the lineup.
“When you do all those things, you’re talking about a five-tool, perennial All-Star, MVP candidate.”
After Acuna’s first eight major league games, anybody care to argue with that assessment from the greatest Braves hitter since Hank Aaron?
Acuna and Albies joining Freeman, one of the baseball’s best overall hitters, gives the Braves as dynamic a trio as any in baseball. The lineup is about as balanced as any in the league, and in my opinion Kevin Seitzer is as good a hitting coach as there is, an old-school former player who has fully adapted to the dramatically increased use of analytics that the Braves have incorporated under new general manager Alex Anthopoulos.
Entering Friday, the Braves led the majors in batting average (.277), on-base percentage (.346) slugging percentage (.456) and OPS (.802) and led the National League in runs (172) and extra-base hits (115). All while striking out fewer times (242) than any other NL team.
They’re extremely aggressive, swinging at more first pitches than any team, but at the same showing plate discipline.
The Braves have a mix that most teams would envy of solid veterans and precocious kids. Their 34-year-old lineup regulars, Nick Markakis and Kurt Suzuki, remain highly productive – Markakis is off to one of the best starts – and with Freeman they set a tone of professionalism that younger players take their cues from.
The young starting rotation, after first-week woes, has trimmed its ERA to 3.06 before Friday, best in the NL and second in the majors. Veteran Brandon McCarthy has provided leadership and stability for a rotation that still ranked just 10th in the league in innings (164 2/3) but produced plenty of six- and seven-inning outings lately to ease the burden on a bullpen that was overworked early.
The Braves’ 3.78 bullpen ERA was a modest 13th in the majors entering the weekend. The relievers’ .211 opponents’ average ranked third, but 75 bullpen walks (in 112 innings) was 17 more than the next-highest total, the Marlins’ 58 in 121-2/3 relief innings. However, Braves relievers had allowed a majors-low five homers.
Atlanta’s average run differential of 1.9 per game was the best in the majors before Friday and its strength of schedule, according to Baseball Reference, was tied with Washington for second-toughest in the majors. The Braves’ sweep of the Mets gave them a 17-9 record against teams with current .500 or better records, the most wins in the majors against such opponents, ahead of the Cubs (14-9).
The Braves’ only four games against a below-.500 opponent before Friday all came in one series at Cincinnati, where they split four games to start the recent trip. The two losses were in the games immediately before Acuna’s arrival.
They were good before Acuna joined them, but are significantly better with him.
Think about it, two of the game’s best young players, a pair of five-tool emerging stars, are now hitting in front of three-hole hitter Freeman.
The majors’ youngest pitcher, Soroka, just beat the Mets in New York in his debut and looked like a veteran doing it. Sean Newcomb has turned a corner and looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter, a young lefty throwing in the upper-90s. Mike Foltynewicz has become more reliable and Julio Teheran has a 1.86 ERA in his past five starts and took a no-hitter to the seventh inning Thursday at New York.
This team is for real, folks. The rebuild is coming to fruition.
Enjoy the ride. It should be a good, long one.
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