As the Braves near the 30-game halfway point of the season, let’s take a glance at some of the positives and negatives over the first 25 games:
THE GOOD
The bullpen: One of the best bullpens in the majors has helped the Braves withstand troubles with the rotation. Lefty Tyler Matzek might be baseball’s best feel-good story, returning to the majors for the first time since 2015. Before he was tagged for four runs against the Nationals this week, he allowed only two runs over his first eight appearances.
Shane Greene looks like his 2019 All-Star self again, allowing one run over 11-1/3 innings. Huascar Ynoa suddenly looks like a productive long reliever. A.J. Minter has resembled his old form, when he was deemed the team’s closer of the future.
Darren O’Day and Mark Melancon have met expectations. Grant Dayton has been a serviceable lefty. All-Star lefty Will Smith hasn’t gotten rolling yet, with only four appearances, after beginning the season on the COVID-19 list. Chris Martin rejoined the bullpen Thursday after time on the injured list because of an esophageal constriction.
Overall, the Braves boast a deep, experienced bullpen. It’s bailed them out so far, but if starters can’t start covering more innings, it’s going to take a toll on the relief group, as the Braves know.
Run production: While the Braves’ offensive has had some shortcomings, they rank eighth in MLB with 124 runs scored. They rank ninth in hits (213), 10th in average (.253) and slugging (.440), and 11th in homers (34). Their 54 doubles lead the majors.
They’ve done enough to overcome their overwhelming strikeout numbers and middling on-base percentage. Their 250 strikeouts are one behind the major-league lead, which belongs to Oakland, the team with the American League’s best record. Their .322 on-base mark is 15th in the majors, just a tick behind the National League-best Dodgers.
All in all, the Braves are a fringe top-10 offense even in their mediocre form. That’s encouraging for future output, though the team needs to get healthy first.
Where they stand: Despite few breaks going their way, the Braves are in good shape postseason-wise, even without considering the expanded field. Down three young All-Stars, they’re 14-11, in first place in the NL East. Now that the Marlins are coming back to Earth, the rest of the division isn’t menacing either; nobody else is over .500. The Braves should still be considered the favorites.
How the Braves have handled their circumstances deserves praise, but many considered them the second-best team in the NL entering the season. There’s still time to find their best form – they haven’t come close to it yet – but projecting ahead for October, it’s hard to see how this team makes a deep run if you’re judging it off the first 25 games. Fortunately, there’s plenty of time remaining.
THE BAD
The shattered rotation: It’s been a while since the Braves’ No. 1 weakness was so obvious; to say they need rotation help wouldn’t do the situation justice.
Mike Soroka is out for the season. Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb are at the alternate training site. If Cole Hamels returns, the earliest it could be is the second week of September. Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright (who was optioned to the alternate site Thursday) are intriguing young pitchers, but neither should be as relied upon as they’ve been.
Josh Tomlin has left his bullpen role (at least temporarily) to join the rotation. He’ll make his second start this weekend. Newcomer Robbie Erlin impressed in his first start against the Marlins and will get another turn.
Max Fried has exceeded even optimistic expectations. He’s firmly entrenched in the Cy Young Award watch. But the rotation beyond him is in shambles. The Braves know they’re extremely limited if the unit isn’t sorted out.
The trade deadline is 11 days away, but it’s far from guaranteed the Braves can make a sizable addition. If the Braves don’t advance in the postseason again, their starting pitching would be the likeliest reason why.
Injuries: Losing Soroka was a gigantic blow to the Braves’ pennant hopes. Hamels’ unavailability has further weakened the rotation. Missing Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, each because of a wrist problem, has forced the Braves to switch up their lineup.
Neither Acuna’s nor Albies’ ailments appear serious, but they were enough to land them on the injured list. The Braves were hopeful Acuna would return this weekend, with Albies not far behind him. If there are any lingering issues – and the Braves have sidelined them hoping to avoid such – that could loom large in the playoffs.
Freddie Freeman, who arrived at camp five days before opening day because of his own battle with COVID-19, was off to a slow start but seems to be coming around. Nick Markakis, who rejoined the team after the season started, is momentarily out because of potential COVID-19 exposure, though Markakis hasn’t tested positive.
Martin and Smith have rejoined the bullpen.
To their credit, the Braves have done an admirable job navigating injuries and managing the virus’ threat. They’re getting healthier, and when Acuna and Albies return, perhaps they can finally hit their stride.
Holes in the lineup: Johan Camargo and Austin Riley starred during the third base competition in spring training. The break didn’t help them: third base has been a gaping hole for the Braves thus far. Riley is hitting .167 with 23 strikeouts in 66 at-bats. Camargo, who’s played second base recently, is hitting .192 with 25 strikeouts in 73 at-bats.
Even following a three-hit game Tuesday, outfielder Ender Inciarte is hitting .226/.304/.258. The Braves just promoted top outfield prospect Cristian Pache, who could cut into Inciarte’s time, but probably won’t make a big immediate impact at the plate.
Right now, the Braves aren’t getting much from three key players. Their potent top four – Acuna, Albies, Freeman and Marcell Ozuna – haven’t clicked simultaneously either. The offense has been helped by above-expectations production from catcher Travis d’Arnaud and shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Overall, despite producing runs, the lineup has clear weaknesses that will be magnified in the postseason. To state the obvious, the Braves would benefit greatly from a Camargo or Riley capturing some of the lightning in a bottle they found in the past. Perhaps Pache will provide a spark.
