Editor’s note: Polling results are often described as snapshots at a particular moment of time in a campaign. This, however, is more of a doodle, aggregating election projections from various sources, some that rely entirely on polling while others do not. This feature will be updated on a periodic basis to show you what’s being scribbled in the margins as the 2020 presidential campaign moves from chapter to chapter.
With the political conventions now behind us and only nine weeks left in the campaign, it’s as good a time as any to check out projection models for this year’s presidential election.
Even though the 2016 election proved that the prediction business is a risky one, many models are taking another crack at it in 2020.
So what do they say?
At this moment, numerous models give former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden the edge over Republican President Donald Trump. Many even give Biden enough Electoral College votes to claim a victory.
So, is this race over? Anybody who’s heard the story of the tortoise and the hare — meaning all of us — knows that it’s way too early.
For prognosticators, many still stinging from the results of 2016, everything is still tentative. When FiveThirtyEight recently released its forecast, it set Trump’s odds of winning at 27%. That may seem small, but in it’s final forecast before the 2016 vote, his odds were 29%. Hillary Clinton and the rest of us know how that turned out.
On Monday, Trump’s odds were 32%, and FiveThirtyEight would only say that Biden, at 68%, was “slightly favored” to win the White House.
So there are signs the race is tightening, and many polls are coming out this week that could tell us more. But you need to remember there are still 63 days left until the election — more time than the tortoise ever had.
There are two places to check out these models.
The website 270toWin displays two maps to track the campaigns that it says will grow closer in their projections as Nov. 3 nears. That could just be 270toWin’s way of saying it’s still pretty early for reliable polling.
One of the 270toWin maps is based entirely on polling.
The other is a “consensus map” pulling in data from 10 models that can be found on the site’s pundit page, and more could be coming. Here’s how they break down:
Four of those models are the work of full-time analysts: the Cook Political Report; Inside Elections; the Niskanen Center; and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produced by Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.
Two others are described by 270toWin as statistical models produced by The Economist and FiveThirtyEight.
Another model, managed by PredictIt, is depicted as a prediction market that appears to function in the same way an investor might choose stocks using “market odds.”
The final three models — produced by CNN, NPR and Politico — fall under the heading of media analysis.
Two other models that are currently not listed as contributors to the consensus map but are still displayed on 270toWin’s pundit page: the Princeton Election Consortium (which is poll-driven) and the U.S. News Electoral College Ratings.
RealClearPolitics manages its own model based on polling.
Projections as of noon Monday:
270toWin consensus map (last updated Aug. 25): Biden, 278; Trump, 169; Toss-up, 91
270toWin polling map (updated three times daily): Biden, 275; Trump, 119; Toss-up, 144
CNN (last updated Aug. 3): Biden, 268: Trump, 170; Toss-up, 100
Cook Political Report (last updated July 24): Biden, 308; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 43
The Economist (updated twice daily): Biden, 308; Trump, 170; Toss-up, 60
FiveThirtyEight (updated every two hours): Biden, 278; Trump, 186; Toss-up, 74
Inside Elections (last updated July 17): Biden, 319; Trump, 187; Toss-up, 32
Niskanen Center (last updated July 26): Biden, 318; Trump, 125; Toss-up, 95
NPR (last updated Aug. 3): Biden, 297; Trump, 170; Toss-up, 71
Politico (last updated July 6): Biden, 268; Trump, 203; Toss-up, 67
PredictIt (updated every four hours): Biden, 319; Trump, 219; Toss-up, none*
Princeton: Biden, 325; Trump, 170; Toss-up, 43
RealClearPolitics (last updated Aug. 3): Biden, 212; Trump, 115; Toss-up, 211
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (last updated July 14): Biden, 268; Trump, 204; Toss-up, 66
U.S. News (last updated July 9): Biden, 278; Trump, 186; Toss-up, 74
*PredictIt doesn’t do toss-ups
Where does Georgia stand
Presidential elections have been Republican turf in Geogia since 1996, peaking in 2004 when George W. Bush won by a margin of 16.2 percentage points. The races have generally grown tighter since then. Add to that the results of the 2018 governor’s race, when Republican Brian Kemp beat Democrat Stacey Abrams by less than 1.5 percentage points, and Georgia starts looking like a battleground.
The models tend to back that up. Over on 270toWin, Georgia is marked as a toss-up state on both the consensus map and the polling map, meaning its 16 Electoral College votes are up for grabs. Definitions may vary, but generally for toss-ups, the leader’s edge falls within a margin of 5 percentage points.
Six of the models that feed the consensus map — CNN, Cook Political Report, The Economist, Inside Elections, the Niskanen Center and NPR — say Georgia is to be had.
The four others – Sabato’s Crystal Ball, FiveThirtyEight, PredictIt and Politico – still give Georgia to the Republicans, but they classify it as “leaning” or just a step away from toss-up.
Meanwhile, the Princeton and U.S. News models show a wide split. Princeton identifies Georgia as Democratic territory, marking it as leaning. U.S. News says the state is leaning Republican.
On its site, RealClearPolitics classifies Georgia as one of 16 toss-up states, accounting for nearly one-third of the stars on the flag.
What are the other toss-ups states?
On its consensus map, 270toWin paints only four other states as gold, its color of choice for toss-up: Florida (29 Electoral College votes), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11). Also up for grabs are one congressional district each in Maine and Nebraska, states that break up their electoral votes. All those states voted for Trump in 2016.
On RealClearPolitics, the other toss-ups are: Texas (38), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18) Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4), plus the individual congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Only three of those states — Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada — did not vote for Trump in 2016.
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