Low vaccination rates, delta variant push spike in Chatham COVID cases and hospitalizations

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In the last 15 days, according to the Coastal Health District, newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 have soared more than 300 percent in Chatham County, from 111 on July 15 to 369 on July 29. Of people choosing to get tested, 12% of tests are returning positive, slightly below the state average.

In Bryan and Effingham counties, cases have risen closer to 400 percent, with 342 and 276 new cases reported over the last two weeks, respectively.

For Dr. Lawton Davis, director of the eight-county Coastal Health District that includes Chatham, Bryan, and Effingham counties, the past few weeks have been, “To quote Yogi Berra, ‘déjà vu all over again.’”

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Although these new numbers are nowhere near the peaks reached in early January, prior to vaccinations becoming widely available, they are a snapshot of two dynamics working in tandem: a much more virulent delta variant of the original SARS CoV-2 virus, and the continued low rate of vaccination among a large swath of the region’s population.

Delta force

“We know that the delta variant is more infectious than the original SARS-COVID-19 virus and the (UK) alpha variant,” said Davis during a phone interview on Friday.

To put the new variant’s transmissibility in perspective, Davis pointed to the R-value, which is the effective reproduction number of the virus. The original SARS-COVID-19 virus that appeared first in late 2019, said Davis, “had an R-value of 2, meaning an unvaccinated person was likely to spread the virus to two other unvaccinated people.”

The alpha variant has an R-value of 4, Davis further explained. “The delta variant, on the other hand, has an R-value between 8 to12.”

For comparison, he offered, the R-value of other well-known viruses: seasonal influenza, 1.2; Ebola, 1.5; chicken pox, 10, and measles, 16.

The high transmissibility of the delta variant — nearly 225% more than the original virus, according to a recent study from China — coupled with low vaccination rates is leading an increase in area hospitalizations. Nationwide, the delta variant is reportedly responsible for 80 percent of new COVID cases.

A reprieve then a spike

Paul P. Hinchey, president and CEO of the St. Joseph's/Candler regional health system, recalled the day in April of this year when there were no patients in the COVID unit. That day was one of celebration.

That reprieve, however, was short-lived, met with a gradual uptick in June as restaurants, shopping, and events opened up, then a spike in the last two weeks.

Of the 49 current hospitalizations in St. Joseph's/Candler's COVID ward, 70 percent of the patients are unvaccinated. All of the 30 percent breakthrough cases, meaning individuals who have been fully vaccinated then test positive for the COVID virus, have significant comorbidities that compromise their immune systems.

"They are not as sick as they would have been had they not received the vaccine," Hinchey explained. "In the absence of the vaccine, we may have had a mortality."

Those hospitalized also reveal a disturbing trend: patients are growing younger.

"The average age is 53," said Hinchey. "That's dramatic. At our peak of 115 patients, the average age was 63."

That trend is evident at Memorial Health University Medical Center, as well, where the average age of its 59 COVID-19 hospitalizations is 55. "The majority of patients are between the ages of 30 and 60 years of age," responded Dr. Stephen A. Thacker, Memorial Health's associate chief medical officer, to an email questionnaire.

The 3Ws and a V

The safest and best bet to limit the spread of COVID, stressed the Coastal Health District's Davis, has not changed: follow the three Ws — wear a mask, wash your hands, and watch your distance — and get vaccinated.

At press time, more than 54% of Chatham County's population remains unvaccinated.

In Bryan County, 61% of the population is unvaccinated; in Effingham, 70%.

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"No vaccination is 100 percent. It's not bullet proof," Davis said, "but they are still doing a very good job of limiting the spread of infection, the severity of symptoms, the likelihood of hospitalization, and death."

Four women who delivered babies in recent days at St. Joseph's/Candler tested positive for the virus, and they, too, were unvaccinated.

"I've been at ground zero for 17 months now," said Hinchey, "and I'm still mystified why that message has not come through."

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This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Low vaccination rates, delta variant push spike in Chatham COVID cases and hospitalizations