The Iranian foreign minister’s parting words in Geneva carried hopes that the U.S. and other world powers could begin closing the gap with Tehran over its nuclear program. He returns home with perhaps an even tougher challenge at finding common ground.
In a sharp counterpoint to the Western outreach by President Hassan Rouhani’s government, hard-line factions in Iran have amplified their bluster and backlash in messages that they cannot be ignored in any diplomatic moves with Washington either in the nuclear talks or beyond.
They also hold important sway over the pace and direction of Iran’s nuclear program through the Revolutionary Guard, the single most powerful institution in Iran. Without its clear backing, the West and its allies could grow increasingly skeptical over Rouhani’s ability to deliver on efforts to ease fears that Iran could be moving toward an atomic weapon or a so-called threshold state — without an actual bomb, but with all the expertise and material in place.
“Iran’s hard-liners are the not-so-silent partners in everything that Rouhani has set in motion,” said Scott Lucas, an Iranian affairs expert at Britain’s Birmingham University. “The Revolutionary Guard is never a bystander in Iran.”
It’s still unclear whether the Guard would agree to potential demands such as increased U.N. monitoring at nuclear and related sites.
Even the smallest gestures toward the U.S. by Iran poke at a nest of complications: Deep historical grievances, perceptions of national pride and a culture of “enemy” resistance that runs to the core of groups such as the Revolutionary Guard, which is instinctively wary about anything that could chip away at its vast influence that stretches from the military to the economy.
For Rouhani and his allies, it also means a possibly short leash.
Iran’s top decision-maker, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has allowed Rouhani to reach out to the U.S. The immediate goal is trying to address concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and getting painful economic sanctions rolled back in return. Two days of talks in Geneva this week between Iran and envoys from six nations — the permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany — ended with rare optimism that at least some new paths have been opened to explore.
But all noted that the negotiating process could drift well into next year, and it remains unclear whether Iran could offer verifiable concessions needed to end the deadlock. In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Iran had offered “a proposed approach” on moving the talks forward.
The West fears Iran’s uranium enrichment labs eventually could churn out weapons-grade material, and some in Israel and elsewhere worry the outreach and goodwill by Rouhani is merely a ploy to buy time. Iran insists it does not seek nuclear weapons.
It’s likely that Khamenei will keep his backing for Rouhani’s initiatives as long as it seems Iran is moving toward its objectives of easing sanctions, which have strangled the economy by cutting into vital oil exports and blocking the country from international banking networks.
But any stumbles — such as the West demanding sweeping United Nations inspections — certainly would bring a barrage of outrage from Iranian hard-liners. That, in turn, could pressure Khamenei to reconsider his support for Rouhani’s bid at historic detente with Washington.
“The Rouhani government understands that,” said Ehsan Ahrari, a Virginia-based strategic affairs analyst. “It is operating under a very short window of opportunity.”
This is part of the motivation behind Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s insistence for talks to quickly reconvene. The next two-day round is scheduled to begin Nov. 7 in Geneva.