This is the story of a great American city and its metropolitan region, the ninth largest in the country.
A number of the nation’s best-known and respected companies make their headquarters there. It has proud and long-standing arts organizations, performance spaces and museums, contributing to uniquely high quality of life. That quality of life is supported by a large and well-funded philanthropic community that’s the envy of other metros.
This city is the home of one of the Federal Reserve’s banks, a sign of its importance to the nation’s economy.
A series of parks ring the core city, established by forward-thinking leaders to preserve green space amid the town’s rapid expansion.
This place has a history of proud and big-name citizens, and can even — with a little bit of a reach — claim a past president as one of its own.
First-class universities and world-renowned medical facilities support its international reputation.
Leaders of the region acknowledge problems, including economic inequality and racial tensions, but they prefer to highlight examples of social progress. Voters are on the verge of electing the first black mayor of a major American city.
This city is Cleveland, Ohio, in 1960.
I grew up in Cleveland. As a current citizen of Metro Atlanta, I can’t help but notice the parallels between two important way stations in my life. I love both places; Cleveland for the boyhood it gave me, Atlanta for the unique opportunities it provides at this point in my life.
And I recognize the comparison isn’t perfect, but I use it to draw attention to the reporting on our front page today, as The Atlanta Journal-Constitution kicks off our year-long “Atlanta Forward” series.
Our hope with this series: take a deep, insightful look at where Metro Atlanta, currently the country’s ninth-largest metro region, stands as the nation recovers from the Great Recession. Has the recovery here been what the leading city of the South should expect, and are we positioned for the future?
There are some positive signs, as we watch economic indicators improve. But there are also troubling signs for Atlanta, especially compared to the cities that we can consider rivals, Dallas and Charlotte:
- Metro Atlanta's overall economy as measured by GDP is down nearly a full percentage point since 2007. Charlotte's is up 10 percent. Dallas' has risen 14 percent.
- Atlanta last year employed 4 percent fewer people than prior to the recession. Dallas employed 8 percent more, Charlotte 6 percent more.
- Average weekly wages in metro Atlanta remain 6 percent below pre-recession levels, while in Charlotte and Dallas they've dropped 3 percent or less.
- Metro Atlanta home prices remain 13 percent below the pre-recession peak. In Dallas, they're 13 percent above peak.
- Atlanta's suburban poor population jumped 159 percent between 2000 and 2012 — the largest increase in the nation.
We owe our readers a sober assessment of Atlanta’s stature. Our public service mission of serving an informed democracy is all about advancing our community. We owe it to our readers, and our leaders, to tell the difficult truths before it’s too late, so this remains a great place to live. Also, of course, as a local business our fortunes are directly tied to metro Atlanta’s economic well-being.
We still have many advantages, especially the airport. We’re home to some huge, global companies such as Delta, Coca-Cola and Home Depot.
Atlanta is a place that a newcomer quickly falls in love with. The city’s amazing rise over the past half-century created a momentum we still enjoy.
But we have to remember, prosperity is neither a guarantee nor a birthright. The world can change quickly. Demographics sometimes catch up with you, leaving you with an aging population as younger folks seek better opportunity elsewhere.
I have many friends, and much of my family, in Cleveland. It has never ceased being a great place with welcoming people and the classic charm of a hardworking Midwestern city. I still miss it, and relish my visits there.
But Cleveland is a different place than in my childhood. It’s about the 30th-largest metro area these days, and has been rocked by global and corporate changes that eroded its traditional strengths.
The Ohio city rose during the country’s industrial revolution and prospered because it was one of the Great Lakes’ most important ports, first supporting shipbuilding and later access to the all-important raw materials for steel-making.
The city once considered an ultra-modern airport built on the almost endless space that could be created by landfilling parts of Lake Erie. Political bickering helped put an end to that plan.
Cleveland was also once the home to Standard Oil, founded by Cleveland native John D. Rockefeller and at its peak a corporate behemoth. But a takeover by British Petroleum eventually rendered that company’s Cleveland roots insignificant, its presence a distant memory.
And it would be safe to argue that global changes mostly sealed its fate, especially that of its longstanding steel industry.
Much opportunity has been lost there, and life for many isn’t what it once was.
In Atlanta, we can dismiss changes coming our way and what our rivals are doing, and we can occupy ourselves with small matters. We can let our politicians toss out red meat issues and enjoy the show. We can allow our leaders to continue to ignore problems with transportation, infrastructure and schools.
We can, in fact, fiddle as our Rome burns.
But we must acknowledge the price we could pay.
Cleveland during its heyday referred to itself as “The Best Location in the Nation.” Do you think in 1960, Cleveland’s leaders saw places like Atlanta or Charlotte as rivals?
Of course they didn’t. Until it was too late.
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