Despite President Barack Obama’s hope for American foreign policy, one thing is abundantly clear as his administration enters its back stretch. The days of sweeping American power abroad are over, for now.
Certainly, he bears responsibility. But so does the Congress. Yet most important, the world itself is changing: 20 years of unbridled American economic, political and military order - known simply as globalization - are coming to an end.
The president’s speech at West Point was a fine speech. But it did not advance the ball. He did not move the locus of American attention and energy out of the Middle East and northern Africa.
Yet, most of the action in the world today is entirely elsewhere. Events are not just taking place against the wishes of Washington; they are being dictated by a structural shift in power. In Europe, the Russian government led by Vladimir Putin has essentially won the contest over Ukraine.
The elections in Germany, France and Spain are perfect examples of a Europe that is drifting out of the once predictable direction of the alliance with America.
Russia and China, in their recent energy deal, are feeling each other out, not so much as allies as to understand their abilities to counterbalance American influence.
Elsewhere in the world, economic and political developments are merely outstripping the ability of the United States to influence them. In Egypt, the military government remains firmly in place. In Syria, civil war rages on. In Africa, China is cementing a nearly permanent place through extensive financing. American ties with much of Latin America simply languish, utterly neglected.
At home, President Obama has not articulated a genuine vision of America’s place in the world - platitudes aside - after the wars that were the aftermath of 9-11.
As a result, neither he nor the Congress have been able to extend meaningfully America’s nearly 25-year-old vision of globalization: a global system of intertwined economic, political and security strands all guaranteed by the Americans. Where Bill Clinton cast aside generals for bankers and business executives, George W. Bush replaced them with soldiers and spies.
In both cases, both men were reckless. Obama has been more cautious and nuanced, trying to combine soft and hard power, drones with loans, so to speak. But it has all been too subtle, too little, too late or, worse, all three.
In the meantime, the world has simply moved on. Once downtrodden Russia is awash in petro rubles. China is a wealthy nation in its own right, having gone from world’s factory floor to financier.
In what is left of his presidency, Obama simply has more reach than grasp when it comes to influence abroad. It is more likely than not that the president will find himself reacting to global developments instead of shaping them. What arises next is likely to be a more multi-polar world that will be surprising and even dangerous.