It’s definitely possible small businesses will start hiring again in 2015, unless something happens and they don’t.
I’m being serious.
Small-business owners are inherently skittish. You would be, too, if your life’s savings and your retirement fund depended on the success of a single furniture store or coffee shop. One minute things are looking up, but if someone in the General Assembly starts talking about a tax increase, or the Environmental Protection Agency threatens to regulate the drainage ditch behind your store, you’re not going to spend a dime unless you absolutely have to.
So, when small business says it’s kind of hopeful about the coming year, that’s saying a lot.
Each month, the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index. It tracks whether small-business owners are feeling upbeat or discouraged. Last month, the index jumped 2 points to 98.1, the highest it’s been since before the Great Recession. It got as low as 81.0 in spring 2009.
And on Jan. 7, the federation released its December jobs report showing twice as many small businesses increased employment (18 percent) as decreased employment (9 percent.).
The federation doesn’t drill down to the state and local levels, but economists with the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business recently predicted statewide employment growth would increase by 2.3 percent in 2015, continuing a trend that began in 2011. If that’s the case, we’ll be doing better than the country as a whole. Overall job growth in the United States is forecast at 1.8 percent.
According to the UGA economists, our biggest job gains will come from the construction industry, professional and business services, and mining and logging. Granted, we don’t have a lot of mining in the metro area, but Atlanta does have a lot of construction and business and professional services, so that bodes well for us.
However.
As any small-business owner can tell you, a lot could happen.
For example, there’s always talk at the Gold Dome about raising the state’s minimum wage. Let’s skip the debate over whether hourly workers deserve more and look at the bottom line: There’s only so much money in the pot. If the General Assembly tells employers to spend more on labor, employers will have to find the money someplace, probably by robbing Peter to pay Paul. If wages increase, the number of employees could decrease, or owners may pull the plug on plans to expand and create jobs.
This is especially true of small businesses, which generally aren’t making huge profits, if they’re making any profits at all.
There’s also the question of Georgia’s roads and bridges.
Some members of the General Assembly are talking about a tax increase, or several tax increases, to cover the cost of fixing existing roads and building new ones. We absolutely need better roads and quality infrastructure, but lawmakers must be careful not to place too much of the burden on the backs of small business. If employers have to pay higher taxes, they’ll have less money for wages and hiring additional workers.
So, will small businesses be hiring in 2015? Definitely, maybe.
Kyle Jackson is Georgia director of the National Federation of Independent Business.
