Michelle Nunn’s quiet apprenticeship ended Tuesday night as election returns finally settled who she would face in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat. That person is David Perdue, a millionaire CEO who won by turning the pro-business Chamber of Commerce into the villain of a GOP primary, and by highlighting his status as a political outsider.
Nunn too will be running as an outsider. In fact, we’re about to see something rare: two serious first-time candidates pitted against each other in a race for the U.S. Senate. As Perdue put it in his acceptance speech Tuesday night, “I didn’t even know how to spell politics a year ago.”
But as Perdue also mentioned Tuesday, he has now been through a trial by fire. Yes, he has suffered some bumps and bruises. Yes, he has spent a lot of money — much of it his own — and yes, he has to find a way to reunite his party after a pretty vicious battle. But it has its benefits.
“These intramural scrimmages are no fun,” he said. “You know, you beat up on your teammates and then you gotta go back in the locker room and talk to them again. But I want to tell you, they make you better.”
Nunn hasn’t had that experience. The coming weeks will be the first time that she has really been in the spotlight, and it’s going to be interesting to see how well she handles it.
She does have the money, both the cash that she raises herself and cash that outside groups are certain to pour into the state in the form of campaign advertising. A lot of that advertising — harsh, confrontational and at times unfair — is likely to contradict the “post-partisan” message that Nunn wants to project. But it will also do the political dirty work that she might prefer to avoid.
Based on early polling, Georgians are also at least willing to give her a listen. Two polls taken before the GOP primary give her an advantage of six or seven percentage points over Perdue, but it would be foolish to give them much credence. Polls taken that early in a race, before the final contestants are even set, don’t really give you an accurate reading.
What Nunn does not yet have — and what she will need — is a clear message. She’s going to run as a centrist problem-solver, a moderate antidote to the bitterness, rancor and extremism of the national Republican Party. And she’ll try to project an air of studied neutrality as Perdue tries to paint her as a poorly disguised liberal intent on doing the bidding of Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.
I understand the thinking. Neutral may not antagonize people. It may make them feel safe and unthreatened. The problem is, neutral doesn’t get people to turn out at the polls come November. Republicans still have a built-in advantage in this state, and that advantage is amplified in mid-term elections with no presidential race to draw voters. It can only be overcome with turnout.
Organization — voter registration, identification and outreach, technology, etc. — can offset some of that advantage. But in the end, you also have to give voters cause to feel excited about and invested in your campaign. Nunn remains the underdog, and underdogs don’t win by doing a Jerry Seinfeld. You can’t run a campaign based on nothing.
