The Korean peninsula is without doubt the most militarily fortified spot in the world, with more than 2 million well-trained, uniformed forces on either side of the Demilitarized Zone, coupled with about 75,000 U.S. ground forces stationed in South Korea and Japan.
The level of hostility shown across the border was clearly evidenced by a number of incidents during the past two years in which North Korea tested nuclear bombs and launched numerous missiles despite international sanctions. Last year alone, there were two serious military incidents on the disputed waters on the west coast that could have easily escalated into major wars.
Another war in Korea would mean a scale of unprecedented devastation. The death of Kim Jong Il from natural causes at age 69 at this unsettling historical junction has left the world shrouded in uncertainty regarding his successor — the “Dear Leader’s” youngest son, Kim Jong Un, 28. As this youthful, inexperienced and untested man takes control, the world anxiously awaits some indication of his direction for leadership.
The best predictor of his policy, especially in the foreign domain, is the fact that the leadership of Pyongyang, the capital, formally announced Kim Jong Un as the “great successor.”
From this bold and decisive move by the North Korean leadership, we can infer two distinct facts. First, Kim Jong Un is expected primarily to succeed the legacies and policies of his father and grandfather. Secondly, somebody other than the leader himself is calling the shots. That somebody is the collective entity of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party of Korea. The membership of this entity consists of ideologues, military leaders, and bureaucrats. There is no distinction between the military and civilian sectors.
The one thing they both share is their steadfast loyalty to Kim Jong Un, regarded as the symbolic and physical embodiment of both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Therefore, disloyalty to him is construed as a betrayal to Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung. These two late leaders were regarded as fathers of the people, leaving a distinct legacy and a body of principles which will be the authoritative source of North Korean policy.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom in the West that North Korea has always been ruled by a single capricious leader, the truth is North Korea’s vital political decisions are made through a tedious process of thorough deliberations by groups of people who compose the political bureau of the party.
Given the strong presence of Confucian ethics and the paternalist beliefs toward the leadership, a mass uprising against the authority is not thinkable, nor will there be any possibility for a power struggle that challenges the center of the authority.
I expect the transition of government will continue to be stable, and policies of previous leadership will be closely adhered to. Pyongyang’s policies will be simple and clear: It will pursue economic expansion aggressively through diversifying its economic foreign policy, but never at the expense of its national security.
For Washington, the advent of the new leadership in North Korea opens up a new opportunity to set straight its policy agenda. The utmost national goal for the United States has to be stopping the newest nuclear state from proliferating its nuclear technology outside of its borders. Without global denuclearization, the future of humanity is bleak, indeed.
For this supreme goal, we must be prepared to work with the new leadership in Pyongyang, despite its form of governance that may be inconsistent with our own ideals. We must not insist on policy reform or regime change in any alien cultural soil, let alone such an extremely unique system as North Korea. As important as South Korea might be as a traditional ally, the United States should not be held hostage to Seoul’s policy toward its northern neighbor.
Han S. Park is a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia and director of the Center for the Study of Global Issues at the University of Korea.
