A new poll released this week shows that likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a slight edge over presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election.
A CNN Poll of Polls – an average of the results of the five most recent nationwide polls of presidential preference among registered voters – showed Clinton ahead 45 percent to Trump's 43 percent. Clinton's lead has shrunk dramatically from March and April polls that had the former secretary of State ahead of the New York businessman by double digits.
The poll results are an average of these polls: The CBS News/New York Times poll conducted May 13-17, the Fox News poll conducted May 14-17, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted May 15-19, the ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted May 16-19, and the Quinnipiac University Poll conducted May 24-30. The poll does not have a margin of sampling error, according to CNN.
Here’s what they are saying about the new poll.
Clinton up by 2 points in new poll
“With the final primaries of the 2016 nomination season approaching, a new CNN Poll of Polls finds the candidates most likely to lead their parties into the general election are locked in a tight contest. Hillary Clinton holds an average of 45% support while 43% back Donald Trump across five recent nationwide polls of registered voters. …Throughout March and April, public polling on the presidential race found Clinton well ahead of Trump, with the former secretary of state holding double-digit leads over the businessman in 10 out of the 14 polls ...”
Race tightens when Libertarian, Green candidates factored in
“A Quinnipiac University Poll out Wednesday found that when Clinton and Trump were one-on-one in a national general election matchup, she held a 4-point lead over the billionaire, 45% to 41%. That number tightens even more when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were added. When all four candidates were factored in, the former secretary of State had 40%, Trump had 38%, Johnson had 5% and Stein got 3%.”
Women for Clinton, men for Trump
“Drawing her support from younger, more educated and predominantly women voters, the former secretary of state leads the presumptive Republican nominee 45 percent to 41 percent. In the hypothetical but increasingly likely matchup between Clinton and Trump, 51 percent to 35 percent of men opted for the Manhattan businessman, while 54 percent to 30 percent of women went for Clinton.”
How ‘wounded’ is Clinton?
So Clinton may, or may not, be blowing her cake walk to the convention. But what if she is looking at the worst case scenario? What would a narrow victory, or even a defeat, mean for her campaign? Not much in terms of the Democratic nomination … A more serious question is the prospect of Clinton limping towards the finish line against a Republican nominee with a more consolidated party behind him.”
Are the numbers right?
“Now, in my view, we shouldn’t place too much stock in national polling at this point, because it historically has not been predictive. But if we are going to obsess over it, let’s keep this in mind: In two of these polls, once you allow for the possibility that Clinton could win over many of Sanders’s supporters once he concedes and endorses her, Clinton holds sizable national leads, of eight and nine points.”
Sanders did better against Trump in poll
“The results suggest that Republicans and Democrats are ready to line up behind their likely standard-bearers, with 86 percent of Republicans supporting Mr. Trump and 90 percent of Democrats backing Mrs. Clinton, who is still working to defeat her opponent in the primaries, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Like in many polls, Mr. Sanders performed better than Mrs. Clinton against Mr. Trump in a hypothetical matchup, leading him by nine percentage points.”
No, the numbers aren’t right
"Early general-election polls have been released, and liberals are freaking out. Donald Trump is almost dead even with Hillary Clinton in theRealClearPolitics average of national surveys, upending assumptions that the race wouldn’t be close. Some Democrats are denouncing the polls as skewed. Others are sinking into panic or fatalism. Relax. These surveys don’t forecast who’s going to win the election. They tell you how the public feels right now."
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