As 2015 dawns, U.S. troops transition to a training and support role, even as the Taliban is increasing its attacks. And in Iraq, more U.S. troops will be on the way to a war that was supposed to be over.
Here’s a primer on what lies ahead:
Q: Hasn't Obama succeeded in shrinking the U.S. military presence?
A: Yes. In Afghanistan, the U.S. has carried out a major withdrawal over the last two years, shrinking its troop presence from about 100,000 at the height of the war to 10,800 today. That's the level authorized by the White House through early next spring, when it is due to drop again, to 9,800. All U.S. troops are due to leave by the end of 2016.
But Iraq has shown how hard it is to follow such timetables. The U.S. pulled all its troops out in December 2011. But last August, Obama announced plans to send about 1,500 troops back after Islamic State militants took control of large parts of the country. Obama recently decided to roughly double the U.S. troop level to 3,100.
Q: What are the troops doing?
A: A mix of missions. In Afghanistan, they work with military advisers from other countries to help train Afghan security forces. The goal is to professionalize a force that has shown a capability to fight but remains unable to sustain itself over the long term. Most U.S. troops work at large bases in the country's east and south, not at combat outposts.
Despite White House insistence that the U.S. combat role is over, the troops could be forced to help defend the bases from insurgent attacks. About 4,000 special operations troops will continue to carry out raids against the remnants of al-Qaida and their supporters. And U.S. forces will have authority to assist the Afghan military with airstrikes, supplies and even ground forces if it is in danger of a major defeat by insurgents.
Q: What about in Iraq?
A: The White House has put strict limits on the U.S. role there. No troops are supposed to be in ground combat. Special operations troops are advising Iraqi and Kurdish commanders from joint operations centers, where they coordinate airstrikes against Islamic State positions and convoys. U.S. officers are finalizing plans to begin retraining Iraqi ground forces
Q: So the U.S. wants to shift to a support mission and prevent U.S. casualties?
A: Mostly, yes. But carrying out such a shift isn't likely to go smoothly. Already in Afghanistan, as U.S. troops have withdrawn, Taliban insurgents have stepped up attacks. Afghanistan's new president, Ashraf Ghani, is lobbying U.S. officials to consider slowing down the timetable for the withdrawal.
In Iraq, the timetable is more open-ended. U.S. officials warn that American troops may be needed for three years or more to help Iraq regain control of its territory and to keep pressure on Islamic State forces in neighboring Syria.
Q: How does the Pentagon feel about the White House strategy?
A: Many in uniform are glad to see the costly wars come to an end. On the other hand, some privately complain that Obama's goal of disengaging militarily, and his fondness for withdrawal deadlines, sacrificed many of the gains they fought for in Iraq and risks doing the same in Afghanistan.
About the Author
