(BOX FOR EACH CMG STATE — Please set the up in By-the-Numbers style)
(FOR PBP)
477,000
Obama administration’s projected 2014 sign-up for Florida’s health care marketplace.
— Associated Press
(FOR AJC)
204,000
Obama administration’s projected 2014 sign-up for Georgia’s health care marketplace.
— Associated Press
(FOR CMG OHIO)
190,000
Obama administration’s projected 2014 sign-up for Ohio’s health care marketplace.
— Associated Press
(FOR AAS)
629,000
Obama administration’s projected 2014 sign-up for Texas’ health care marketplace.
— Associated Press
The Obama administration’s internal projections call for strong enrollment in the states in the first year of new, government-run health insurance markets, according to unpublished estimates obtained through a public records request.
Whether those expectations will bear out is still unclear. Technology glitches have frustrated many consumers trying to sign up for coverage online, and efforts to upgrade and repair healthcare.gov are ongoing.
The estimates, however, may provide the closest thing to a yardstick for measuring the performance of President Barack Obama’s health care law across the states.
The breakdown of expected enrollment by states was included in a draft of an administration report on insurance premiums in the new markets. It was omitted from a subsequent version that was released to the public last month by the Department of Health and Human Services.
Leading up to the opening of insurance markets Oct. 1, the White House generally deflected questions about its own expectations of how consumers would respond. Officials instead cited a congressional estimate that 7 million people nationwide would gain coverage in the first year through the markets, which offer subsidized private insurance to people who do not have a job-based health plan.
The draft, dated Sept. 20, broke down that figure by state. It estimated the expected enrollment in California, for example, at 1. 3 million people in 2014. The estimate for Texas was 629,000 and for Florida, 477,000.
Asked why the estimates were missing from the final report, Department of Health and Human Services spokeswoman Joanne Peters said in a statement: “We are focused on reaching as many people as possible about their options. There are many estimates of how many people will enroll in year one.”
Some states have released their own estimates, she added, and other states are changing theirs based on experience.
The omission puzzled some experts in the field of health care economics.
“Why there is this reluctance to share internal estimates, I don’t know,” said health economist Gail Wilensky, who ran Medicare for President George H.W. Bush. “This kind of information has a way of worming its way out into the open, which makes it look like they have something to hide.”
While consumer interest in the new health insurance markets has been undeniably strong, it’s hard to get a sense of how many people have been able to navigate balky federal and state websites and successfully enroll. Numbers released by states running their own marketplaces suggest upward of 100,000 people have enrolled so far, out of millions of potential interested customers.
The administration has so far refused to release numbers for the 36 states in which it is taking the lead. Officials at first said the frozen computer screens and other issues were the result of a high volume of interest. They later acknowledged software and design issues were also to blame.
Appearing earlier this week on MSNBC, former White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the situation is “excruciatingly embarrassing” for the administration.
“This was bungled badly,” said Gibbs, adding: “When they get it fixed, I hope they fire some people that were in charge of making sure this thing was supposed to work.”
Although Gibbs did not refer to HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, White House spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday she has “the full confidence of the president.”
Uninsured people have until Dec. 15 to sign up for coverage to take effect Jan. 1, when most Americans will be required to have health insurance.
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