PolitiFact roundup: Tax cut, visas and Obamacare

It’s difficult to pinpoint when the 1986 tax reform effort was at the same stage as the current effort was when Ryan made this remark. But mid- to late-1986 would be roughly the time frame.

We found four polls taken before that stage in 1986, and two had results near Ryan’s 18 percent claim. ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted in June and September 1986 asked, “From what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose this tax bill, or don’t you know enough about it to say?” Both times, 22 percent said they favored it and 15 percent opposed it.

The other two polls, however, showed much higher support for the bill than Ryan indicated — but also much higher opposition, as fewer respondents were on the fence: In a Gallup poll in June 1986, 38 percent of respondents favored that tax-reform proposal and 36 percent disapproved. In an August 1986 Gallup poll, 40 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of the Reagan plan being proposed then.

Our rating

For a statement that is partially accurate, we rate Ryan's statement Half True.

Says of the diversity visa lottery program, “they give us their worst people, they put them in a bin,” and “the worst of the worst” are selected.

— President Donald Trump on Friday, Dec. 15, 2017 in a speech

Trump oversimplified and misconstrued the program. Countries don’t send their people. Lottery applicants must meet minimum standards for education or work experience. The lottery is run by the United States, not foreign countries. Lottery winners are selected by a random, computerized process and then must pass background vetting by the U.S. government before getting a visa.

Our ruling

Trump based his criticism on the fact that the suspect in a New York City terror attack came through the program in 2010. But his characterization gives a misleading impression of how it works.

We rate Trump's statement Pants on Fire.

“We essentially repealed Obamacare because we got rid of the individual mandate … and that was a primary source of funding of Obamacare.”

— President Donald Trump on Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017 in a speech

The Obamacare “individual mandate” fines people who might afford health insurance but choose not to buy it. The new tax measure reduces the fine to zero.

How far does ending the penalty go toward repealing the Affordable Care Act? And, did revenues from the fines represent its primary source of money?

The money part is simple. In 2016, about 6.5 million households paid $3 billion in penalties. The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan number crunchers for Congress, reported that in 2017 government costs for the Affordable Care Act totalled nearly $120 billion.

Other revenue sources are more significant, including taxes on wealthy households, about $16 billion; and health insurance companies, about $12 billion.

So Trump was wrong when he called the penalty money a primary source of funding.

The greatest coverage gains under the Affordable Care Act came through expanding Medicaid to all low-income adults. Medicaid expansion remains intact.

Studies point in both directions on the impact the mandate alone has on the individual market.

Our ruling

Eliminating the mandate undercuts the Affordable Care Act, but hardly repeals it. Major pieces of the law remain in place. On the money side, the penalties represent less than 3 percent of the program’s cost, and other taxes directly tied to paying for Obamacare are four and five times larger. This change will be disruptive, but it does not “essentially repeal” Obamacare.

We rate Trump's claim False.