When he pulled the plug on the American war in Afghanistan, President Joe Biden said the reasons for staying, 10 years after the death of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, had become “increasingly unclear.” Now that a final departure is in sight, questions about clarity have shifted to Biden’s post-withdrawal plan.
What would the United States do, for example, if the Taliban took advantage of the U.S. military departure by seizing power? And, can the United States and the international community, through diplomacy and financial aid alone, prevent a worsening of the instability in Afghanistan that kept American and coalition troops there for two decades?
The Biden administration acknowledges that a full U.S. troop withdrawal is not without risks, but it argues that waiting for a better time to end U.S. involvement in the war is a recipe for never leaving, while extremist threats fester elsewhere.
“We went to Afghanistan because of a horrific attack that happened 20 years ago. That cannot explain why we should remain there in 2021,” Biden said. “We were attacked, we went to war with clear goals,” he added. “We achieved those objectives. Bin Laden is dead and al-Qaida is degraded in Afghanistan, and it’s time to end this forever war.’'
A look at some of the questions about Afghanistan’s future.
What happens after the troops are gone?
Predictions range from the disastrous to the merely difficult. Officials don’t rule out an intensified civil war that creates a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan which could spill over to other Central Asian nations, including nuclear-armed Pakistan. A more hopeful scenario is that the Kabul government makes peace with the Taliban insurgents.
At a recent Senate hearing, a senior Pentagon policy official, David Helvey, was asked how he could remain optimistic when, in just the first few weeks of the U.S. withdrawal, hundreds of Afghans were killed.
“I wouldn’t say that I’m optimistic,” Helvey replied, adding that a peace agreement is still possible.
How will Afghan forces hold up?
The administration says it will urge Congress to continue authorizing billions of dollars in aid to the Afghan military and police, and the Pentagon says it is working on ways to provide aircraft maintenance support and advice from afar. Much of that work had been done by U.S. contractors, who are departing along with U.S. troops. The U.S. military also might offer to fly some Afghan security forces to a third country for training.
But none of those things — the training, the advising or the financial backing — are assured.
Also unclear is whether the U.S. will provide air power in support of Afghan ground forces from bases outside the country.
The Afghan air force is central to the ongoing conflict, yet it remains dependent on U.S. contractors and technology. The Afghans, for example, have drones but not the kind that are armed, making them less effective in battle.
Will the Taliban enlist or assist al-Qaida?
In a February 2020 agreement with the Trump administration, the Taliban pledged to disavow al-Qaida, but that promise is yet to be tested. This is important in light of the Taliban’s willingness during their years in power in the 1990s to provide haven for bin Laden and his al-Qaida colleagues.
Joseph J. Collins, a retired Army colonel who has studied the U.S. war in Afghanistan since it began, notes that as recently as two years ago the Pentagon was alerting Congress to enduring links between al-Qaida and the Taliban. In a June 2019 report, the Pentagon said al-Qaida and its Pakistan-based affiliate, al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, “routinely support, train, work, and operate with Taliban fighters and commanders.”
Collins is skeptical that the Taliban have genuinely renounced ties to al-Qaida.
“I don’t think that leopard has changed its spots at all,” he said in an interview.
Earlier this month, the U.S. government watchdog for Afghanistan reported to Congress that al-Qaida relies on the Taliban for protection. The report, citing information provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency in April, said, “the two groups have reinforced ties over the past decades, likely making it difficult for an organizational split to occur.”
What becomes of U.S. counterterrorism efforts?
The Pentagon says that all U.S. special operations forces will leave no later than Sept. 11. That will make counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, including the collecting of intelligence on al-Qaida and other extremist groups, more difficult but not impossible.
The administration’s answer to this problem is to continue the fight from “over the horizon.” This is a concept familiar to the military, whose geographic reach has expanded with the advent of armed drones and other technologies.
But will it work? The administration has yet to make any basing or access agreements with countries bordering Afghanistan, such as Uzbekistan. So it might have to rely, at least at the start, on forces positioned in and around the Persian Gulf, meaning response times will be much longer.
What about diplomacy?
The administration says it will retain a U.S. Embassy presence, but that will become more difficult if the military’s departure leads to a collapse of Afghan governance.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters this past week that securing access to the Kabul international airport will be key to enabling the United States and other nations to maintain embassies. He said the U.S. and NATO allies are considering an international effort to secure that airport.
A related problem is the fate of Afghan civilians who might be targeted by the Taliban or other groups for aiding the U.S. war effort. Interpreters and others who worked for the U.S. government or NATO can get what is known as a special immigrant visa, or SIV, but the application process can take years.
Washington’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, has told Congress the administration wants to protect those civilians, but that it is trying to avoid the panic that might erupt if it appeared the United States was encouraging “the departure of all educated Afghans” in a way that undermined the morale of Afghan security forces.
U.S. FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN
Oct. 7, 2001: President George W. Bush announces that U.S. and British troops have begun striking Afghanistan for harboring the al-Qaida terrorists blamed for the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
December 2001: The U.S. force grows to 2,500 as troops scour the mountainous Tora Bora region looking for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. The Taliban is ousted and an interim Afghan government is established.
December 2002: The U.S. ends the year with about 9,700 troops deployed, mostly going after Taliban insurgents.
April 2004: The number swells to 20,300 as the U.S. builds up forces along the Afghan-Pakistani border and provides security for fledgling reconstruction projects.
December 2009: Troops now number more than 67,000, and the situation is deteriorating, with escalating violence and more service members killed. Obama orders in another 33,000 troops to battle al-Qaida militants and a resurgent Taliban.
May 2011: Bin Laden is found hiding in neighboring Pakistan and killed in a U.S. special operations raid. There are still about 100,000 troops in Afghanistan.
June 2011: Saying the U.S. is meeting its goals in Afghanistan, Obama announces his withdrawal plan: Bring home 10,000 troops by the end of 2011, and continue at a steady pace until handing over security responsibilities to the Afghans by 2014.
March 2014: With nearly 34,000 troops in Afghanistan, Obama orders the Pentagon to develop options for a complete military withdrawal.
May 2014: Obama announces his plan to pull virtually all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016, when his second term in office will be drawing to a close.
March 2015: Troops decline to about 9,800.
July 6, 2016: Saying the security situation in Afghanistan “remains precarious,” Obama announces that instead of dropping the U.S. troop level to 5,500, he will keep it at about 8,400 through the end of his term on Jan. 20, 2017.
Aug. 21, 2017: President Donald Trump warns against a “hasty withdrawal” from Afghanistan. Weeks later it is confirmed that additional troops will be deployed, eventually bringing the number to about 14,000.
Sept. 2, 2019: The U.S. envoy negotiating with the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad, announces that under a deal reached “in principle” with the insurgent group, the first 5,000 U.S. troops would withdraw within 135 days of the agreement becoming final.
Jan. 15, 2021: The U.S. military meets its goal of reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan to about 2,500.
June 21, 2021: Officials say roughly 650 U.S. troops are expected to remain in Afghanistan to provide security for diplomats after the main American military force completes its withdrawal.
VIEWPOINTS
“I’m now the fourth United States president to preside over American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans, two Democrats. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth.”
President Joe Biden
“A full withdrawal from Afghanistan is dumber than dirt and devilishly dangerous. President Biden will have, in essence, canceled an insurance policy against another 9/11.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina
“The longest war in U.S. history will finally end at the cost of more than 2,300 American lives and many trillions of dollars. What began as a hunt for Osama Bin Laden and his gang of terrorists became an effort to bring order to a corrupt nation deep in a tribal civil war.”
Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois
“I do fear that two to three years from now we are going to look back and regret the decision to withdraw the remaining ... U.S. troops.”
Gen. David Petraeus, former commander of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan
“A civil war is certainly a path that can be visualized if this continues on the trajectory it’s on right now. That should be of concern to the world.”
Gen. Austin S. Miller, top U.S. general in Afghanistan
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