Q: I remember that there is an economic index that is tied to hemlines. Who came up with it and when? What is the hemline index? This is similar to the Super Bowl index. According to the outcome of the Super Bowl, how is the economy expected to perform this year?
—Lance DeLoach, Thomaston
A: George Taylor, an economist at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has been credited with creating the hemline theory in 1926. He noticed that the hemlines of women's skirts were higher in a strong economy because they could afford silk stockings, according to a recent article on CNBC.com. When times were bad, the hemlines were lowered so women wouldn't be forced to show they couldn't afford to buy stockings or wore cheaper varieties. Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Franses of the Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics examined hemlines from the past 90 years and couldn't find evidence that they predict economic performance, according to the article. Instead, they found there's usually a three-year delay when it comes to hemlines, which were longer at this year's New York Fashion Week, the article reported. The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator states that when an NFC team wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will post gains for the year, and will decline when an AFC team wins, according to BusinessInsider.com. The website said this theory "has had nearly a 78 percent accuracy rate since its inception in 1967," the year of the first Super Bowl. The NFC's New York Giants defeated the AFC's New England Patriots on Feb. 5.
Andy Johnston wrote this column. Do you have a question about the news? We’ll try to get the answer. Call 404-222-2002 or email q&a@ajc.com (include name, phone and city).
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