For Gingrich and Cain, much rides on three days in Iowa

For Cain, the former Atlanta radio host and CEO of Godfather's Pizza, the weekend offers opportunity to reach Iowa Republicans such as Linda Holub. Holub has narrowed her list of preferred candidates but has yet to decide for whom to vote in 2012. Holub, a party official from Sioux City, said Cain is in her top four.

"He has addressed most of the important issues," Holub told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He does it from a business standpoint -- I think our country is a business and it's not an entitlement system. [But] I need to see he has specific ideas."

Still, she said Republicans she knows have all heard of Cain; Holub herself first heard of him when Cain filled in for Sean Hannity on the radio.

"I really liked what I heard," Holub said. "Since he's been on Fox News a lot, a lot of people have listened to him."

Of course, Holub said, she is also quite familiar with Gingrich, the former Georgia congressman and speaker of the U.S. House. But that's not to Gingrich's benefit.

"I have watched Newt for quite a few years," Holub said. "It's my  impression that he likes to be liked more than he is a candidate who wants to be president. He is a very bright man and he has good ideas, but he has compromised too many times."

Holub's thoughts on the two men jibes with what University of Iowa political scientist Cary Covington sees in polling data. Gallup has tracked voters' views of candidates, and Covington says Gingrich falls into what he calls the "no thanks quadrant."

"Gingrich is really in the worst quadrant. He's in the well-known-and-not-well-liked quadrant," Covington said. "The voters know who they are and they know what they think, and they're not attracted by that."

Cain, on the other hand, "is incredibly well-liked but not well-known," Covington said. "His big opportunity Thursday and at the straw poll is to really stir things up, make a good impression, get some publicity, because the potential is there."

Cain is ready to tackle that, his spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael said from a bus in Iowa.

"Of course tomorrow night is important," she said. "Our biggest hurdle to overcome is the name ID factor. To get on stage in front of several million people watching at home is a great chance for folks to see Mr. Cain and what he stands for and what his background is and what his vision is."

For Gingrich, the debate is perhaps even more important, since he chose not to pay the huge sums necessary to actively compete in the straw poll.

The straw poll has a reputation that might exceed its actual importance. Held the summer before the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, it's become a big deal even though it's not always a strong predictor of who ultimately wins the nomination.

The Iowa Republican Party, which runs the straw poll as a fundraiser that requires participating voters to have tickets, allows all announced candidates to be on the ballot -- meaning the likes of Sarah Palin and Texas Gov. Rick Perry don’t appear. But the truly competitive teams are those that pay tens of thousands of dollars for a tent at the Iowa State Fair and for the chance to address the crowd.

Campaigns also often pay for supporters' tickets to the event and provide food and drink. Gingrich, saddled with more than $1 million in campaign debt, chose not to go that route. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is said to have spent more than $1 million on his effort in Iowa overall, including the straw poll.

"We're not spending the kind of money that some of the candidates are going to try and spend," Gingrich said during a recent campaign stop in Atlanta. "I'd like to get as many votes as we can get without spending much money."

It's not a slight to the Iowa GOP, Gingrich said. "We'll be at the state fair, we'll be at Ames that morning and we'll have an effort to communicate with people."

Gingrich is not alone in avoiding the cost and risks of actively participating. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are also on the ballot but not shelling out the money to compete. Gingrich's campaign announced this week that he would participate in the Iowa Straw Poll Presidential Kick-Off Breakfast in Ames and then greet activists outside the straw poll.

Dan Seufferlein, a Cedar Rapids attorney, is coordinating Gingrich's support in Eastern Iowa. He believes Gingrich doesn't need the straw poll as much as others.

"Newt's been coming to Iowa off and on it seems for almost a decade," Seufferlein said. "I see his name ID as high enough that he doesn't need to compete to have a chance to compete in the caucus."

Instead, he said, Gingrich's strength on the stump will win the day.

"I've been to several events he's been at, and each time I have gone with someone who is uncommitted or leaning toward someone," Seufferlein said. "Each time, the comments I get are ‘I'm either switching my support to him' or ‘I need to think about him again.' Each time he comes here to speak he convinces more people."

It won't be enough, however, said Dave Peterson, a political scientist at Iowa State University, which will host the Ames debate. Gingrich's campaign is irrevocably flawed, Peterson said.

"I can't remember the last time there's been good news for the Gingrich campaign," he said. "I have a hard time seeing his campaign getting any momentum coming out of this weekend."

The straw poll, Peterson said, doesn't always propel a candidate to victory, but it does occasionally provide a candidate a way to exit the race. Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson tanked in the 2007 straw poll and dropped out the next day. Peterson wonders whether it will be Gingrich's turn to take a bow after Saturday.

"I wonder if a poor showing Saturday is his opportunity to take a graceful way out," Peterson said. "The straw poll doesn't do a whole lot. But it offers candidates who are flailing an excuse to stop."

Gingrich, however, said he has no plans to drop out.

"I've been in Iowa a lot," he said. "You'll see the campaign this fall spends a disproportionate amount of time there. We'll be in Iowa again and again."