9th Congressional District race is unusual -- and not

And with more races to come. If no single candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes on Tuesday -- and that's highly likely given the large field -- there will be a runoff election June 8.

A few weeks after that, whoever wins the race to fill out Deal’s term – along with many of those who will lose – will face off once again in the July 20 primary election. And then comes the November election to finally decide who can have their own two-year term representing the district’s 630,000 residents.

Tuesday's election will be a harbinger of who will likely win the seat in November.

"Usually if you win the special election, that guarantees you'll win -- or certainly makes it more likely you'll win -- the next full term," said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock.

That said, there have been elections -- most recently in Hawaii and in New York -- where a candidate has won a special election only to serve briefly before being ousted in a general election, according to Bullock.

"It can happen," he said.

The race also could be an indicator of upcoming elections and could be the first real test of the strength of the conservative "tea party" movement in Georgia.

One of the front-runners in the race, former state Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger), is a darling of the movement and recently won the endorsement of the Atlanta Tea Party, making him one of the few candidates from any office to actually earn an endorsement from representatives of the group. Graves also has the backing of national conservative groups such as the Club for Growth.

"It could be a litmus test for things to come," Graves acknowledged.

Hawkins leads the pack in fund-raising, having raked in more than $677,600 and spending about $349,500 so far, according to the latest figures from the Federal Election Commission. Graves was a close second, having raised $607,000 and spending $479,200 so far.

Spanning the northwest corner of the state, the 9th District is one of the most solidly Republican congressional districts in the country. About 75 percent of voters cast a ballot for Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

"We are a very conservative district," said Ethan Underwood, chairman of the Forsyth County Republican Party. He said he and other Republicans are looking for two things in a candidate: "Someone who can carry our values to Washington, and who can carry the football once they get there."

Not surprisingly, then, the special election has become a contest about who is the most conservative.

All six of the Republicans in the race are campaigning on platforms to repeal the new federal health care reform law, cut federal spending and reform the tax system. Even the lone Independent in the race, Gainesville welding supply marketer Eugene Moon, is campaigning on his conservatism. The lone Democrat, former Episcopal minister Mike Freeman of Gainesville, has been preaching about consensus building and his ability to work with both Republicans and Democrats. Freeman dropped out of the race in April and then re-entered.

In recent weeks, two of the front-runners in the campaign -- namely Graves and Hawkins -- have taken off the gloves in their fight over who's the most conservative.

Graves chastised Hawkins for not signing a petition denouncing the new federal health care reform law, or "Obamacare." Hawkins responded by saying he'd not only sign any such a petition, he'd "nail it to the White House door."

Earlier this week, a county chairwoman for Graves dropped a bombshell and defected to Hawkins' camp, blasting Graves for what she said were questionable fund-raising practices.

Graves, in response, accused Hawkins of having "a history as a negative campaigner."

"It's nothing we didn't expect," Graves said.

"Things have gotten a little ugly ... a little pointed in the last week or so," said another Republican contender, businessman Steve Tarvin.

In a race where most of the candidates are Republicans and all tout their conservative values, the sudden ugliness "does surprise me," said Tarvin, a political newcomer.

For 9th District voters, all of this is as unusual as the race itself.

Deal consistently and handily had won re-election as the region's representative for 18 straight years -- most of which was after he switched from the Democratic Party. Deal resigned in March amid a congressional ethics investigation and to focus on his campaign for governor, leaving the district without representation for the past month.

Thursday, as she walked into the Forsyth County Courthouse to cast an advance vote, Ruth Eldridge explained some of the frustration that some residents are feeling.

Eldridge supports breast cancer causes. In the past, she has often called Deal's office for support for her issues, and he has obliged. But when she recently called the 9th District office for help, the former congressman's staff told her to call back after the June 8 runoff.

"There hasn't even been an election yet, and they are talking about a runoff," said Eldridge, who said she was leaning toward voting for either Graves or former Senate Republican majority leader Bill Stephens.

The special election is expected to cost the counties involved $250,000 or more by some estimates, and that doesn't include the cost of a possible runoff.

For the candidates, the race has been a challenge not only because of its short time frame, but because of issues unique to the district, such as space, distance and geography. The district spans all or part of 15 counties, from the Tennessee, North Carolina and Alabama state lines down to part of Forsyth County. Mountains and foothills punctuate much of the region.

Graves said he has put more than 40,000 miles on his car in the past month or so, and he regularly puts in 15 or more hours a day traveling and campaigning.

"There isn't a straight road between here and Tennessee ... and there's cellphone problems all in the middle," added rival Hawkins.

Even so, Hawkins and others say they're ready to start campaigning again as soon as the dust settles from Tuesday's election.

"I'll just put another set of tires on the Buick and keep on going," Hawkins said.

9TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

What: Special election to replace U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal, who resigned in March to run for governor.

When: Tuesday. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. If a runoff is needed, it will be held June 8.

Where: Voters from portions of Forsyth and Gordon counties, as well as all of Catoosa, Dade, Dawson, Fannin, Gilmer, Hall, Lumpkin, Murray, Pickens, Union, Walker, White and Whitfield counties are included in the 9th District and eligible to vote.

Who: One Democrat, one Independent and six Republicans are running for the seat in the traditionally Republican district.

Candidates:

*Also qualified for July 20 primary election