Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in new Monmouth poll

Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for President Donald Trump in November, while four in 10 say the same about presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Biden holds a 12-point lead in the presidential race, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll, conducted by telephone June 26-30 with 867 U.S. adults, with a 3.6% margin of error.

Biden holds a significant advantage among the one in five voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. Slightly more voters say they are confident about the challenger’s mental and physical stamina than say the same about the incumbent.

Biden has the support of 53% of registered voters, and Trump has the support of 41%. This is similar to the Democrat’s 52%-to-41% lead in early June. Biden’s edge stood at 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.

Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (40%) than say the same about Trump (34%). Fully half (50%), though, say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent, while 39% say the same about the challenger.

Among white voters with a college degree, 62% have ruled out a vote for Trump, while just 31% say the same about Biden. On the other hand, 56% of white voters without a college degree are not at all likely to support Biden, while 37% say the same about Trump.

Among voters from other racial or ethnic groups, 61% have ruled out Trump and just 22% say the same for Biden.

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term.”

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A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Murray.

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Concerns about the two septuagenarians’ faculties have become prominent in recent media coverage. The poll finds that more voters are at least somewhat confident that Biden (52%) has the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job of president than say the same about Trump (45%).

However, more are likely to say they feel very confident about Trump (33%) than Biden (23%). About nine in 10 Republicans and Democrats alike say they are at least somewhat confident in their respective party candidate’s stamina, but Republicans are more likely to say they are very confident about Trump (72%) than Democrats are for Biden (47%).

“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters. This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic,” said Murray.