Starmer’s attempt at welfare reform roils his party, capping a troubled first year in office

It's a long way from the landslide election victory of July 4, 2024, when Starmer's center-left party took 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons to end 14 years of Conservative government.

Since then, Starmer has navigated the rapids of a turbulent world, winning praise for rallying international support for Ukraine and persuading U.S. President Donald Trump to sign a trade deal easing tariffs on U.K. goods. But at home his agenda is on the rocks, as he struggles to convince British voters — and his own party — that he is delivering the change that he promised.

John Curtice, a political scientist at the University of Strathclyde, said that Starmer has had “the worst start for any newly elected prime minister.”

Rebellion over welfare reform

Reforming Britain’s ballooning welfare system – and cutting the cost – is a key Starmer pledge, but an attempt to trim disability benefits caused consternation among Labour lawmakers.

Many balked at plans to raise the threshold for the payments by requiring a more severe physical or mental disability, a move the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank estimated would cut the income of 3.2 million people by 2030.

After more than 120 Labour lawmakers said they would vote against the bill — more than enough to defeat it — the government offered concessions, including a guarantee that no one currently getting benefits will be affected by the change.

But opposition continued, with a string of Labour lawmakers speaking against the bill in Parliament. One, Rachel Maskell, called the cuts “Dickensian.”

“They are far from what this Labour Party is for: a party to protect the poor,” she said.

Less than two hours before Tuesday's vote the government backed down further. It pledged that changes to benefits would not be made until after a review, carried out with the help of disability groups.

“This is an absolute shambles," said Labour lawmaker Ian Lavery, branding the much-altered legislation "a hodgepodge of a bill that means nothing to nobody.”

The welfare U-turn is the third time in a few weeks that the government has changed course under pressure. In May, it dropped a plan to end winter home heating subsidies for millions of retirees. In June, Starmer announced a national inquiry into organized child sexual abuse after pressure from opposition politicians — and Elon Musk.

“It’s a failure of leadership for a prime minister with such a big majority to not be able to get their agenda through,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester. He said the government had forgotten the “first rule of politics: You need to know how to count.”

The U-turns also make it harder for the government to invest in public services without raising taxes. The government estimated that its welfare reforms would save 5 billion pounds ($7 billion) a year. Now it's unclear whether it will save any money at all.

Tuesday's vote means lawmakers have approved the bill in principle. It faces more scrutiny, and potentially more opposition, before becoming law.

Starmer acknowledges errors

The government argues that it has achieved much in its first year: It has raised the minimum wage, strengthened workers’ rights, launched new social housing projects and pumped money into the state-funded health system.

But inflation remains stubbornly high and economic growth low, frustrating efforts to ease the cost of living. Starmer's personal approval ratings are approaching those of Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss, who lasted just 49 days in office in 2022.

Starmer has blamed Conservative governments for the need to make tough choices, a downbeat argument that has done little to make Starmer popular.

In recent days, Starmer has acknowledged mistakes. He told The Sunday Times that he was “heavily focused on what was happening with NATO and the Middle East,” while the welfare rebellion was brewing at home, and should have acted sooner to win over colleagues.

UK politics in flux

Starmer’s struggles are all the more striking, because the opposition Conservative Party had its worst-ever election result in 2024, reduced to only 121 lawmakers.

But U.K. politics is in unpredictable flux. A big chunk of Conservative support — and some of Labour's — shifted in this spring's local elections to Reform U.K., a hard-right party led by veteran political pressure-cooker Nigel Farage.

Reform regularly comes out on top in opinion polls. If the shift continues, it could end a century of dominance by the two big parties.

Starmer’s key asset at the moment is time. He doesn't have to call an election until 2029.

“There’s still plenty of time to turn things around,” Ford said. But he said that the Labour lawmakers’ rebellion “will make things harder going forward, because it’s not like this is the end of difficult decisions that he’s going to have to make.

“Barring some magical unexpected economic boom … there’s going to be a hell of a lot more fights to come,” he said.

Credit: AP

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