(And by the way, it's clear many of the characters' questionable decision-making has more to do with plot than logic.
Alan Sepinwall, a respected Hitfix TV critic, breaks it down and explains why he is about to quit this joint.)
Here is a list of all major and semi-major characters and the odds they are going to die. I have zero advance knowledge so this is not a spoiler at all.
Abraham: 60% He's my pick for who Negan chooses to wield that big-arse bat of his. He's hulky and scary looking, clearly someone that would be a major loss to Alexandria. He isn't part of what I dub the Fab Five: Rick, Michonne, Glenn, Carol and Daryl. But he is a major character who has been given plenty of airtime this year and whose death would provide a proper emotional jolt for viewers and Rick's crew. He just hooked up with Sasha. You know what happened to her last boyfriend Bob and her brother Tyreese. His departure makes the most sense to me from multiple levels.
Rosita: 35% She could be whacked, too, but it would make more sense for Negan to go after another dude to show off his peacock feathers. She has been given more to do in recent episodes - even a new short-time boyfriend in Spencer. And she got to pair up with Daryl, although that didn't end so well for either.
Morgan: 35% He is like Dale and Hershel in the past, the voice of reason. He decided to split off from Rick to find Carol. He'll probably find her and they will team up to save Rick's crew from Negan. Or the Wolves might come back. The way he said goodbye to Rick makes me think he could very well be in danger.
Gregory: 30% The leader of Hilltop is vain and boring. Kill him off and nobody will blink an eye. It seems like Jesus really runs the joint anyway.
Gabriel: 20% Gabriel looked like certain toast at so many junctures the past two seasons, you almost forget he is still around. He has redeemed himself to a degree but what more could they do with him? The writers could make him a hero and save a bigger character before perishing this Sunday.
Glenn: 20% He was killed by Negan in the graphic novels. But he has already been "almost" killed twice this season. Actually offing him this third time would be more than obnoxious.
Sasha: 20% Poor Sasha has already lost a lover and a brother. She has been through the ringer and come out stronger on the other side. I just don't sense Negan would target her.
Jesus: 20% He was by far the most interesting character on Hilltop. We can only hope he sticks around awhile.
Tobin: 10% The payoff of killing off Tobin seems remote. He is a minor character and TWD producers have already knocked off a lot of Alexandrians already.
Tara: 5% She is nowhere to be seen since she went on some sort of scouting/supply run expedition with Aaron
Eugene: 5% He's had enough near-death experiences. He is back recuperating in Alexandria from the recent gunfight. I don't see him even showing up in the season finale.
Spencer: 5%. His entire family has been killed since Rick arrived. Why bother? He hasn't been given much airtime or character development. He seems immature at best. I don't know if his death will matter or resonate at this point.
Aaron: 5% Where is he? Not doing anything important.
Heath 5%. The man has not been given much back story or anything to do lately. He's currently on the road with Tara. Will he even show up during the finale?
Maggie: 5% With the odds of Glenn dying so high and Maggie hanging back at Alexandria with the baby (which may not live anyway), it would seem gratuitous to just off her now.
Carol 5%. She is too valuable of a cast member at the moment to get rid off for many reasons. She is likable and sympathetic no matter what she does. She is great at faking characters. She can shoot a gun through her sleeve. Sure, her "transformation" into a Morgan disciple doesn't quite click and her departure from Alexandria overnight like that made no real sense. But she is probably out there ready to save Rick & the gang yet again.
Carl Grimes: 1%. He already lost an eye. No way they're just going to get up and kill him.
Michonne: 0% She is too integral in the story line and too important to perish.
Daryl Dixon: 0%. He was just shot! He looks like he could very well perish under the watchful eye of Dwight and the gang. But come on. The producers and the network know how popular he is. And Norman Reedus has not expressed any inkling he wants to leave the show. So no. That simply won't happen. Will he be semi-incapacitated for a time? Might he be tortured to the brink of death? Sure.
Judith Grimes: 0% Killing a baby? Now? That would be quite a statement but not one I see them doing.
Rick Grimes: 0%. These actors are typically tied down for seven seasons. I'd think it would be Andrew Lincoln wanting to leave that would lead to his death, not the other way around. Given the way the show deifies every stupid decision he makes, they clearly do not want him to die now.