Republicans -- 95 delegates
Donald Trump is in an Empire State of Mind and is expected to cruise to victory here, but with his campaign in a state of turmoil he needs an overwhelming delegate triumph to improve his path to the GOP nomination. (Witness his delegate problems in Georgia and elsewhere.)
The number to watch is 50.
New York awards 14 statewide delegates and three per congressional district. In each case, 50 percent of the vote wins the whole pot. It's not a far-fetched number for Trump statewide, but John Kasich and Ted Cruz can make runs at him in some districts to tear down his delegate haul.
Highly educated Manhattan is tougher territory for Trump than downscale, heavily Italian-American Staten Island. Cruz and Kasich have concentrated their visits on upstate towns where Trump has not been a tabloid fixture for decades.
If Trump walks away with 85 delegates, it would be a major boost to his chances to wrap up the nomination before Cleveland.
Democrats -- 291 delegates
Bernie Sanders wants to be a part of it, and he has shown no signs of going away after Hillary Clinton seemed to have an insurmountable lead for the nomination. The delegate math still does not favor Sanders, but an upset here would be a shocking blow to the Clinton juggernaut.
There are a whopping 44 New York superdelegates -- and you can guess where most of them are aligned -- then 84 will be awarded proportionally statewide, with the remainder by congressional district. Sanders drew a massive crowd to Brooklyn's Prospect Park, but the closed primary favors Clinton, as many of the people feeling the Bern are not pre-registered Democrats.
Analysts are setting the bar for Clinton around a 10-point win: Hit that mark, and her march to the nomination continues. Anything tighter and Sanders can claim continued momentum and mitigate his delegate losses.
Polls
Emerson (April 15-17): Trump 55, Kasich 21, Cruz 18; Clinton 55, Sanders 40. CBS/YouGov (April 13-15): Trump 54, Cruz 21, Kasich 19; Clinton 53, Sanders 43. Gravis (April 13): Trump 57, Kasich 22, Cruz 20; Clinton 53, Sanders 47. NBC/WSJ/Marist (April 10-13): Trump 54, Kasich 25, Cruz 16; Clinton 57, Sanders 40.
Candidate Visits
Trump was in Plattsburgh on Friday; Syracuse and Watertown on Saturday; Poughkeepsie on Sunday and Buffalo on Monday.
Kasich was in Utica on Friday; and Schenactady and Syracuse on Monday.
Cruz was in Rochester and Binghamton on Friday.
Sanders was in Brooklyn on Saturday and Sunday; and Long Island City on Monday.
Clinton was in Harlem on Friday, Staten Island on Sunday and Manhattan on Monday.
Links
New York offers familiar ground for candidates seeking a big win (AJC/Greg Bluestein, on the ground in NYC)
A New Yorker's guide to the GOP primary, district by district (FiveThirtyEight)
How New York could change the delegate math (NBC News)
Trump confuses 9/11 with 7-Eleven at Buffalo rally, mistakes Bills coach Rex Ryan as a champion (New York Daily News)
Nervous Hillary downplays potential of New York landslide (New York Post)
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