With three weeks left in the presidential campaign, there hasn't been a whole lot of change in overall numbers for eight projection models assembled by the political website 270towin.com, plus RealClearPolitics. The odds continue to favor Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.
While the numbers appear to be holding, there has been some shifting among individual states. Some of the models are suddenly showing attention to places such as Indiana and Oregon.
As it did last week, Georgia makes a few appearances under the category of “likely” or “leaning” for Trump. A clearer picture of Georgia could emerge later this week when The Atlanta Journal-Constitution publishes its own polling.
The models give Clinton a range from 256 to 341 electoral votes (last week 253 to 341). Trump’s scores on the models run from 170 to 197 (last week 165 to 198). The magic number to win is 270.
The number of electoral votes in the tossup category range from zero to 112 (zero to 113 last week). So some see wiggle room where others do not.
We should stress that these are projections. The models use a variety of methods, which helps explain why they also produce a variety of results. Some base their predictions primarily on polling, which represents only a snapshot of the race in its current state. But others consider additional information, such as the state of the economy and past voting histories. Some of these models have been quite accurate in the past – we’ve come a long way since “Dewey defeats Truman” – but we won’t have a final number, of course, until Election Day at the earliest (some of us still remember 2000).
These models also operate on different schedules, so some may not be as up to date as others concerning significant campaign developments.
Here are some of the basics:
The models all rate states as “safe” for one candidate or the other, “likely” or “leaning,” or “undecided,” and they assess how many electoral votes each candidate has. 270towin offers explanations for how models arrive at their conclusions.
We concentrate on the “likely,” “leaning” and “undecided” states to show where the battlegrounds are.
One other wrinkle: Electoral votes can be divided among candidates in Maine and Nebraska.
An updated version can be found here each Tuesday until Election Day, Nov. 8.
Here’s a look at the most recent projections from each model:
COOK POLITICAL REPORT FORECAST (as of Sept. 29)
Up for grabs – 69 electoral votes
Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)
Likely voting for Clinton – 59 electoral votes
Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)
Likely voting for Trump – 34 electoral votes
Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Maine (1)
THE CRYSTAL BALL 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 13)
The Crystal Ball is produced by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Last week – no change.
Up for grabs – No states currently fall in this category
Last week – no change.
Likely voting for Clinton – 86 electoral votes (no change from last week)
Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Nebraska (1)
Likely voting for Trump – 40 (24 last week)
Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6) Maine (1)
Last week – Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6) and Maine (1).
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT POLLS-PLUS FORECAST (updated hourly)
FiveThirtyEight combines polling data with information about the economy and voting histories. It defines a state as a tossup if no candidate has a better than 60 percent chance of winning the state.
Last week– Clinton 307 electoral votes to 190 for Trump
Up for grabs – 37 electoral votes (41 last week)
Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)
Last week – Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)
Likely voting for Clinton – 50 electoral votes (39 last week)
Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Nevada (6)
Last week – Florida (29), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)
Likely voting for Trump – 3 electoral votes (30 last week)
Alaska (3)
Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Alaska (3)
THE FIX ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 11)
The Fix is produced by the political team at The Washington Post.
Last week – Clinton 253 electoral votes to 197 for Trump
Up for grabs – 79 electoral votes (88 last week)
Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6)
Last week – Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)
Likely voting for Clinton – 77 electoral votes (57 last week)
Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)
Last week – Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)
Likely voting for Trump – 39 electoral votes (33 last week)
Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Iowa (6) and Utah (6)
Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Iowa (6)
PREDICTWISE PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)
Last week – Clinton 341 to 190 for Trump
Up for grabs – 19 electoral votes (6 last week)
Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.
Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)
Last week – Iowa (6)
Leaning for Clinton – 33 electoral votes (40 last week)
Defined as meaning no candidate has more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.
Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15)
Last week – Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)
Leaning for Trump – 19 electoral votes (11 last week)
Georgia (16) and Alaska (3)
Last week – Arizona (11)
REALCLEARPOLITICS
Last week – Clinton 260 electoral votes to 165 for Trump
Up for grabs – 112 electoral votes (113 last week)
Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Indiana (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (2)
Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and Maine (2)
Leaning for Clinton – 101 electoral votes (98 last week)
Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7) and New Mexico (5)
Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)
Leaning for Trump – 80 electoral votes (69 last week)
Texas (38), Georgia (16), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9), Utah (6) and Maine (1)
Last week – Texas (38), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9) and Maine (1)
ROTHENBERG & GONZALES RATINGS (as of Oct. 14)
Last week – no change in total
Up for grabs – 68 electoral votes
Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)
Last week – no change
Likely voting for Clinton – 40 electoral votes (62 last week)
Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)
Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)
Likely voting for Trump – 27 electoral votes
Georgia (16) and Arizona (11)
UPSHOT PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)
The Upshot is produced by The New York Times.
Last week – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 198 for Trump
Up for grabs – 24 electoral votes (18 last week)
Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.
Ohio (18) and Iowa (6)
Last week – Ohio (18)
Leaning for Clinton – 50 electoral votes (50 last week)
Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.
Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)
Last week – no change
Leaning for Trump – 18 electoral votes (6 last week)
Georgia (16), Maine (1) and Nebraska 91)
Last week – Iowa (6)
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