If history is a guide, we can expect Donald Trump to name his vice presidential pick any day now, while Hillary Clinton's pick will likely come a few weeks later.
With the Republican National Convention set to begin July 18 and the Democratic National Convention on July 25, the prognostication for who will win the veepstakes on both sides is in full swing. There are signs that Trump is considering Newt Gingrich, the former Georgia congressman, former U.S. House speaker and 2012 Republican presidential candidate. Two of our Insiders explore a potential Gingrich nomination on our premium site.
Over at his wonderful Baseballot blog, Nathaniel Rakich has tried to put some science -- or at least history -- behind an educated guess as to when we should expect announcements. Follow him on Twitter @baseballot. (Baseballot, by the way, is described as "A blog for people who are both political junkies and baseball nerds," i.e., us.)
Rakich, has a varied background. Now a freelance writer, he has previously been a senior political analyst in Washington, a front-office assistant for the Boston Red Sox (don't hold that against him) and an editor for Let's Go Travel Guides. He is an alum of Vice President Joe Biden's speechwriting office and Harvard University.
Rakich looked at generations of campaigns to see when VP picks were made. What he found was that "no running mate has ever been tapped more than three weeks before the start of a convention. That means it would be unprecedented for the Republican vice-presidential nominee to be announced this year before June 28 (today) or the Democratic nominee to be announced before July 5. So I'd say you can safely stay off the grid until then without fear of missing anything."
But Rakich doesn't hedge his bets. Given that there's a streak dating to 2008 of VP nominees being announced headed into a weekend, Rakich predicts that Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, will announce his choice this Friday "so people can chew it over along with their hot dogs."
As for Clinton, Rakich says she would probably want to wait until the week before her convention in Philadelphia, but that happens to be the week Republicans are conventioning in Cleveland. That's too risky, he says. But, the RNC ends on Thursday, July 21. Rakich predicts Clinton will name her pick the next day: Friday, July 22.
Starting in Iowa and New Hampshire, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has brought you every key moment in the 2016 presidential race. A team of AJC journalists will be at next month’s Republican and Democratic national conventions, continuing to provide that deep coverage.
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