11Alive/SurveyUSA poll shows resurgence by David Perdue

A new 11Alive/Survey USA tracking poll shows a wide swing in the race for U.S. Senate.

One week ago, the outfit gave Democrat Michelle Nunn a two-point lead.

Today, SurveyUSA says it has detected a five-point swing in Republican David Perdue's favor. He now leads 48 to 45 percent. Crosstabs can be found here. The survey assumes a 31 percent turnout among African-Americans, and 52 percent turnout among women. MOE is +/- four percentage points.

From the SurveyUSA analysis of where the Republican is picking up support:

Among women, where Perdue had trailed by 13 points and now trails by just 2. And among core Republicans, where Perdue's 84-point advantage is the largest it has been in seven WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to 08/18/14. There is movement to Perdue among seniors, where he now leads by 25 points. Worse for Nunn: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Perdue leads by 10 points.

Then there is that other statewide contest:

In the election for governor of Georgia, by contrast, there is no poll-on-poll movement. One week ago, incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal led by 2 points. Today, he still leads by 2 points. Today, Democratic challenger Jason Carter gets 44%, Perdue gets 46%. Among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot, Deal leads by 9 points. Runoff-maker Andrew Hunt's support is down to 3% today, the lowest he has been in 7 tracking polls. The further Hunt's support drops, the less likely there will need to be a runoff.

The Perdue campaign celebrated the new result. At a stop in Dahlonega, U.S. Rep. Tom Graves, R-Ranger, announced the news that had broken on the RV ride in from Clayton.

"We got what I would consider good news, and we got some great news. You want the good news first? The good news is a new independent poll that just came out, just released on the way here -- up three points, David Perdue.

"And you want the great news? Two more points and you win without a runoff. You know what the greater news is? You do that, no more commercials, no more phone calls, it's over."


But this race is far from over. Georgia Together, the pro-Nunn Super PAC that received $350,000 from former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, is out with this 60-second radio ad that's playing outside metro Atlanta:

Keith Mason, the former Clinton White House aide, who’s running Georgia Together, said the group has put $150,000 behind the spot – which obviously is aimed at female voters. In this  partial transcript, a woman narrator speaks throughout:

"Now, we find out his plan to save that company was doing lots of outsourcing – you know, hiring foreign companies and creating jobs overseas.

"I've taken another look, and I'm supporting Michelle Nunn. She's for working Georgians. Like her dad, Sam Nunn, she knows how to bring people together. Michelle Nunn's on our side…."

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