The first Republican in the 2016 pool makes a big splash

Jeb's in:

(The URL for that tweet, by the way, ends with these digits: 2016. Coincidence ... or fate??)

The conventional wisdom is Bush's candidacy would discourage Sen. Marco Rubio, a fellow Floridian, from getting in the race -- which in my view is a good thing, as our recent record of first-term-senators-turned-president is not exactly great. It will also put pressure on Chris Christie to jump in sooner than later -- he'd compete with Bush for staff and donors -- and may snuff out the "draft Romney" movement, such as it is.

My more general thoughts on a Bush candidacy from earlier this month still stand. In short: He's going to face opposition from a lot of conservatives on education and immigration, but the GOP over the past three decades has nominated moderates much more often than conservatives, despite what you may have been told about the rabid right-wing-edness of the Republican primary electorate.

Just 693 more days of this stuff, folks ...