Where The Heck Is The Democratic Race Going?

The polls are close in Ohio and Texas, the two key states of the four that vote on Tuesday March 4th.  The outcome could well end this race quickly in the favor of Barack Obama, or plunge the Democrats into a lengthy battle that will extend into May, it not the Summer of 2008.

One thing is for sure - two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton had polling leads in both Ohio and Texas.  Since then, Barack Obama has closed the gap, or even gone ahead in Texas.

Our last example of how the polls were wrong was two weeks ago in Wisconsin, where the polls right now showed a 4-5 point lead for Obama.  I wrote in this blog how those numbers had me confused, because the state seemed tailor made for the Illinois Senator.

Sure enough, Obama won and won easily by 17 points.  Why the polls were wrong (again) in this case by a dozen points, we never really got any kind of explanation from the pollsters.

So two weeks later, we have Obama slightly ahead in some polls in Texas with Clinton holding a narrow lead in Ohio.  What should we believe?

There are some who believe that Hillary Clinton is poised to make a comeback tomorrow.  Wins in Ohio and Texas could conceivably turn this race around in her favor.

But is that just wish-casting, like when the media gets all jacked up about a hurricane "maybe" taking dead aim at (fill in the blank) when everyone can look at the radar loop and see that the thing is turning west and not north?

I just read through three different polls that were issued in Ohio:  The Cleveland Plain Dealer has Clinton ahead of Obama 47-43; The Columbus Dispatch has Clinton ahead of Obama by 56-40; Boston's Suffolk University has Hillary up 52-40.

In Texas, a series of polls give Obama a slight edge, though the WFAA-Belo poll, which is all Texas, has it a 46-46 tie in their tracking poll.

The Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll has Obama ahead 47-43 in Texas.  I must still note about Zogby that he missed the California result by 22 points, when Hillary won by 9 instead of Obama winning by 13.

Obama certainly has the financial edge here.  He has spent more money for radio and TV ads and that was obvious as I drove around Texas on Sunday.  I heard several ads for Obama and zero for Hillary.

I don't have a gut feeling about Texas.  I do think Hillary should be the favorite in Ohio.  Maybe that's why she is going to spend Primary Night in Columbus, Ohio and Obama will be in San Antonio, Texas.

No Alamo "last stand" metaphors for him, eh?





The polls are close in Ohio and Texas, the two key states of the four that vote on Tuesday March 4th.  The outcome could well end this race quickly in the favor of Barack Obama, or plunge the Democrats into a lengthy battle that will extend into May, it not ...