In a surprise, the Senate on Tuesday voted to allow debate to officially begin on a bill from Democrats that extends long term jobless benefits through the end of March, as a half dozen Republican Senators broke ranks to give Democrats 60 votes on the measure.
So, what's next?
1. It's just Step One
The important thing to remember is that Democrats will have to come up with 60 votes once more to end debate on the overall bill in the Senate - and not every GOP Senator who voted "Yes" may be a "Yes" on that second cloture vote.
For example, Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH): "I voted to proceed with the debate over how to address unemployment insurance with the hope that during the debate the Senate will agree to pay for the extension and work to improve the unemployment insurance program."
In other words - for Portman and several other Republicans - they will only vote for a final bill if there is some kind of budget offset to pay for it. Not as easy as it might sound.
2. The Republican Six
The six Republicans who broke ranks to vote to start debate on the bill were Portman of Ohio, Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana and Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada.
It's no guarantee that all of them will vote the same way on a second cloture vote that will still be needed to force final action on the bill, and like Portman, they made that clear to reporters on Tuesday.
3. Dual messages from Democrats
While urging speedy approval of a 90-day extension of jobless benefits, Democrats also repeatedly said they would be open to some compromise with Republicans on how to pay for the longer term cost of the benefits; "We're certainly going to listen," said Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) at a news conference.
But that willingness may only go so far, as was made very clear by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY).
"Best choice is pass it (the bill), no strings attached, and get it done, get it done quickly," said Schumer. But that's not acceptable to Republicans.
4. GOP talking "jobs" instead
In a statement after the Senate vote, Speaker John Boehner defended the record of the House on job creation, making clear he's ready to deal - but wants some strings attached to the jobless benefits extension.
"One month ago I personally told the White House that another extension of temporary emergency unemployment benefits should not only be paid for but include something to help put people back to work. To date, the president has offered no such plan," Boehner said in a statement.
5. Could there be another deal?
This bill would only extend the long term jobless benefits through the end of March - for three months - which means that Democrats will have to go through this legislative fight again in the spring. That might bolster the call of some Republicans to find a way to offset some of the cost, or come up with some old fashioned legislative horse trading to reach a deal.
For example, what if Democrats got an extension of the benefits and Republicans got approval for the Keystone XL oil pipeline? We just saw a budget deal in December; don't count out the chance of another deal on this matter.
6. Will Democrats allow amendments on the Senate floor?
Republicans say they're ready to offer plans that would offset the cost of the 3-month extension of jobless benefits - or even for a full year of extra benefits, but it's not clear if Democrats will allow such a debate. While Democrats have complained bitterly about GOP filibusters, Democrats have routinely used the rules to block Republican amendments as well, leading to building frustration among GOP Senators.
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) filed two amendments on Tuesday to save money - one would stop millionaires from getting jobless benefits, the other would stop people from getting both retirement payments under Social Security and jobless benefits as well.
Coburn has said that back in 2009, the IRS reported as "many as 2,362 households that reported income of $1 million or more on their tax returns were paid a total of $20.8 million in unemployment benefits" - so it does happen, odd as that may seem.
Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) said he was ready to offer a plan that was similar to the other Coburn amendment; it would bar jobless benefits being paid simultaneously to those who are also getting Social Security disability payments, as Republicans argue there are ways to save money and pay for these extra benefits.
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