As Americans go to the polls on Tuesday, the conventional wisdom in Washington, D.C. is that Republicans will stay in control of the U.S. House and Democrats will remain in charge of the U.S. Senate, though there is a small chance for a GOP takeover of that body.
There were 94 new members of the House elected two years ago - most of them Republicans - this year, there could well be a new freshmen class of 75-85 members, even more, depending on the election results.
Already, we are assured of 62 new House members just through normal attrition and lawmakers deciding to run for other offices; that number could easily grow over 80 once the votes are counted.
For those of you who like the idea of term limits, you can see that the voters are already taking care of business along those lines, as we could have over 160 lawmakers in the House by January who have been elected since 2010 - that's more than one third of the House with one term or less of experience.
Normally, Democrats would expect to win back some of the big gains made by the GOP two years ago, but the changes made by redistricting have shifted seats into more Republican territory in the Sun Belt, giving the GOP a good chance to offset those losses.
In fact, both parties were quietly discussing the possibility that Republicans might even end up gaining a few seats in the House, as it's really not hard imagine outcomes that range anywhere from the Democrats picking up a few seats to the Republicans doing the same.
As for the Senate, Republican dreams to take charge of the Senate still exist, but it will take the perfect set of circumstances for that to happen, like drawing an inside straight several times in a row at the poker table.
Some Republicans believe a Romney win will drag a few Republicans to victory across the finish line; otherwise, Democrats seem to have the advantage, and they could even expand their majority in the Senate if the cards fall right for their party.
The Toss up races include:
* ARIZONA - No one here thought Rep. Jeff Flake (R) would have such a difficult time putting away Democrat Richard Carmona, but that's where we are. Flake has led in the last few polls, making the GOP breathe a little easier.
* INDIANA - Will the debate mention of abortion and rape sink State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) and allow Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) to move to the Senate? Remember, this is the GOP seat of Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), so a GOP loss is a one seat gain for the Democrats.
* MASSACHUSETTS - Can Sen. Scott Brown (R) survive, or will the seat of the late Ted Kennedy go back to Democrats and their candidate Elizabeth Warren? The polls have been going back and forth in a state that will go easily for President Obama, even though it is Mitt Romney's home.
* MONTANA - This race between Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) has been close the entire time; Rehberg has had a slight advantage in the polls. Tester is running much better than President Obama in the Big Sky State.
* NEVADA - While Mitt Romney may not win in the Silver State, Sen. Dean Heller (R) is favored, though the race is close with Rep. Shelley Berkley. In recent years, Democrats have turned out at higher rates than the polls showed.
* NORTH DAKOTA - Rep. Rick Berg (R) has been polling better in recent weeks against Democrat Heidi Heidtkamp; this was once considered a slam dunk for the GOP, but is now a toss up.
* VIRGINIA - Former Sen. George Allen (R) has not captured any magic on the campaign trail in recent months, as he has trailed former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in the polls. Kaine seems to be running a few points better than President Obama in Virginia.
* WISCONSIN - The polls have gone back and forth for ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) and Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D). Maybe it is a simple as the party that wins the state in the race for the White House also carries the Senate race?
Other races of interest include:
* MAINE - It looks like Independent Angus King is the big favorite to win the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe. King has not said which party he would caucus with in the Senate if elected.
* NEBRASKA - Republicans are still favored here to win the seat of retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D), but the race has closed in recent weeks as former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) has gained on GOP nominee Deb Fischer.
* CONNECTICUT - Democrats are feeling more confident that Rep. Chris Murphy (D) can put away Republican Linda McMahon; Murhpy has struggled in this race, but seems to have solidified his poll lead in the last two weeks.
* FLORIDA - Republicans had high hopes for Rep. Connie Mack (R), but he has not been able to catch Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the polls. Nelson has been running better than President Obama in almost every poll in the Sunshine State.
* OHIO - The situation is much the same in Ohio, where Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel has not been able to catch Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Brown has also been stronger than the President in most state polls, which bodes well for the Ohio Democrat on Election Night.
* MISSOURI - While this race is not rated a toss up anymore, it still isn't out of the realm of possibility that Rep. Todd Akin (R) could defeat Sen. Clare McCaskill (D). Akin's comments about rape and abortion turned this from an almost certain GOP gain to a very winnable race for the Democrats.
That's the outlook - now let's have the voters make the decisions.
