As President Obama leaves on Tuesday for the Baltics, the U.S. and Europe continue to focus on more economic sanctions combined with diplomatic efforts as the preferred way to try to convince Russian leader Vladimir Putin to halt what has been a slow motion invasion of areas in the east and southeast of Ukraine, as the issue will certainly top the agenda for this trip and a NATO summit later this week in Wales.
Some points to consider this week:
1. What will Obama and European leaders do on Ukraine?
Last week in a mini news conference at the White House, the President was asked specifically if he would label the Russian military moves inside Ukraine as an invasion; he did not embrace that term. Neither have European leaders, even as NATO allies have very publicly denounced the latest military moves by Russia. The British Prime Minister's office on Monday said the number one topic for this week's NATO summit was the "Crisis in Ukraine and our relationship with Russia" - but at this point, the only likely response seems to be more economic sanctions against Russian interests. "We are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem," President Obama told reporters last week.
2. Baltic leaders to meet with Obama
The first stop for President Obama on this trip will be in Estonia, where the President will meet with leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. If you haven't brushed up on your European geography of late, check out how close those nations are to Russia, and how close Ukraine is as well. It's not hard to imagine Vladimir Putin being able to cause trouble in the Baltics if he wants to do that in the future. "In Estonia, I will reaffirm our unwavering committment to the defense of our NATO allies," Mr. Obama said last week, referring to Article V of the NATO charter, which says that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. But one would have to ask the blunt question - would the U.S., Britain and others in NATO truly be willing to use military force to stop a Russian move on Tallin, Riga and Vilnuis?
3. "Novorossiya" makes a return
If you missed some of the terminology of late from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, he has again been using a term to describe some of the areas in Ukraine that suddenly seem to have Russian troops on the ground, labeling it "Novorossiya." That term was used in the 18th century to describe part of Russian territory north of the Black Sea - where Ukraine is now. It brings up an important question: How far does Moscow want to push along the Black Sea coast? The Russians already have the main Ukrainian naval base in Crimea - Odessa is next to the west, which would bring Russian forces ever closer to Moldova (read up on Transnistria if you haven't already.) One rebel commander in Ukraine was quoted yesterday as saying, "Crimea? What corridor to Crimea? We're going to create a corridor to Odessa!"
4. Should we be calling this the Russian-Ukraine war?
Let's be honest - there has been daily fighting in Ukraine in the east and southeast for months now. The Russian hand behind separatist forces in Ukraine has been evident since Putin made his move in Crimea, but that was mainly a bloodless takeover. The latest action in Ukraine has not been, with estimates of over 2,000 dead. Anti-government forces yesterday evidently seized the airports in both Luhansk and Donetsk, and Ukraine government forces were routed in recent days near Komsomolske, which is about 180 miles down the Dneiper River from the capital of Kyiv (Kiev). Headlines from the Kyiv Post newspaper like, "Azov Battalion fighters pledge to defend Mariupol to the end," sound like a war to me.
5. Little chance of direct aid for Ukraine from West
While the U.S. and NATO partners are expected to roll out new economic sanctions this week against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, there are very few people talking about sending arms to the Ukrainians to help defend themselves against Russian-backed separatist forces - or even the Russian army. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) did say this weekend that President Obama should change course, and provide "lethal aid" to Ukraine, as the New Jersey Democrat labeled Russia's actions an "invasion." For now, Ukraine seems at the mercy of Moscow; if Putin wants to roll infantry and tanks all the way across Ukraine to the borders with Poland, Moldova, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, there would seem to be little chance the Ukrainian army could win such a larger battle without help from other countries.
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