With eight weeks until the November elections, primaries for the Congress finish up Tuesday in three states, as voters in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware go to the polls.
No incumbent members of Congress seem to be in any danger at this point in those states; the tally so far this year for defeated lawmakers in primaries is 13 in the House and one in the U.S. Senate.
In the 2010 elections, 93 new House members arrived (84 Republicans and 9 Democrats) while the Senate had 13 newly elected members (12 Republicans and one Democrat.)
Overall at this point for 2012, when you add in members who have decided to retire or run for another office, we are already at 52 House members who won't return next January and 11 in the Senate.
Two more House members will definitely lose, as there are a pair of member vs member matchups in California on the November ballot - so that makes 54 House lawmakers at a minimum.
So, this year is only two Senators behind where things ended up in terms of turnover two years ago, while the House is 39 behind the last election in terms of change.
The toss-up states according to Real Clear Politics include Senate seats in seven states, with only one of those right now in the hands of Republicans (Scott Brown in Massachusetts.)
Things are not as tilted on the House side - the Real Clear Politics toss-ups in the House include 13 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats.
At this point in time, it just seems to me that the list of swing states is a pretty finite group.
Here is how I see it, with electoral votes after the name of the state:
Florida - 29
Ohio - 18
Michigan - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Wisconsin - 10
Colorado - 9
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
New Hampshire - 4
Just from that list, you can see how important it is to win Florida. A win in Florida can offset the loss of several smaller states.
It also shows that a win in Michigan or North Carolina could almost offset a loss in Ohio for either camp.
Eight weeks to go, and these are pretty much the states to focus on. The President has a narrow lead in most of these swing states.
