After watching many years of political campaigns, sometimes I think the most basic story is the schedule of a candidate - or in this case - of the President. In 2014, it tells a very interesting political tale about the fortunes of President Barack Obama.
Eight years ago, in 2006, President George W. Bush faced a similar mid-term election landscape; his poll ratings were low. Americans were souring on his time in office, and his party was in danger of losing control of the Congress.
In 2014, President Obama is seeing low poll ratings. Americans have soured on his time in office, and his party is in danger of losing control of the Senate.
In 2006, President Bush hopped on Air Force One and jetted around the nation in the final weeks before Election Day, trying to boost his party's chances in Congress mid-term elections.
There were stops in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and California, as Mr. Bush did both public campaign rallies and fundraisers for individual lawmakers and the national GOP.
In the end, it didn't work, as Democrats gained six seats in the Senate and 31 in the House, taking charge of both chambers.
So far in 2014, President Obama has not done a single campaign rally - that will change on Wednesday when he goes to the very blue state of Connecticut to help Gov. Dan Malloy, who is facing a stiff challenge for re-election.
Mr. Obama instead has been helping out with fundraising - he did seven of those events last week, and will do three more this week as well; at the start of this month, he was slightly ahead of the fundraising pace set by Mr. Bush in 2006.
But while he has been raising money, reporters want to know whether President Obama will be the campaign trail a lot before Election Day - and White House spokesman Eric Schultz wasn't really saying when asked last week aboard Air Force One:
MR. SCHULTZ: Darlene, I'm not going to steal the thunder for tomorrow's week ahead. (Laughter.) But I will tell you, because you asked, that on October 15th the President will travel to Bridgeport, Connecticut for a campaign rally with Connecticut Democrats, featuring Governor Dan Malloy. Additional details will be made available in the coming days.
Four years ago in 2010 mid-term election, Mr. Obama hit nine states in a final campaign swing: Ohio, Minnesota, Oregon, California, Washington, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Nevada.
Those stops did help to slow down a bit of the Tea Party momentum, though Democrats still suffered historic losses in the U.S. House.
This year, it's not so clear where the tide is running - or if this President can change his party's fortunes for November 4.
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