As voters go to the polls for primaries in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio, a lot of Republicans in Washington, D.C. will be watching the results closely, wondering if the GOP Establishment has been able to elbow out a series of Tea Party candidates in races for the U.S. House and Senate.
Here are some things to watch:
1. North Carolina Senate
With Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) thought to be one of the most endangered Democrats in 2014, the Tea Party vs Establishment theme burns brightest in this GOP Senate race. In a crowded Republican primary, the Republican Establishment has given its backing to state House Speaker Thom Tillis (backed by Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce), while Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has led some Tea Party groups to support Greg Brannon, who touts himself as the "Constitutional Conservative Republican candidate for Senate in North Carolina." If no one gets 40%, there will be a runoff on July 15.
2. Congressional lawmakers on alert
If the cards fall the right way, there could be a lawmaker who gets booted out of office on Tuesday, even someone who hasn't been on the radar as someone in electoral trouble. Remember, just two years ago, Republicans in Ohio defeated Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) in a surprise GOP primary rebuke, so it can happen. Even Speaker John Boehner has been on TV and radio with advertising to avoid becoming a primary casualty. The biggest primary targets may be Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) and Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), but we'll see if that has just been election year hype - or if they really have to fight for their jobs.
3. Most lawmakers won't break a sweat today
While some members of the U.S. House will have a pit in their stomach about the primaries today, most will not - and that's entirely normal. 3 members in Indiana are unopposed, 4 in North Carolina, and 11 of 16 U.S. House lawmakers from Ohio have no one running against them. Most others have only token opposition . So far, 42 members of the House won't be back for the next Congress in January 2015, while 7 members of the Senate also are not returning. That's almost 10 percent of the House and 7 percent of the Senate. But it's important to remember that most lawmakers in both parties get re-elected.
4. This is the start of an active 8 weeks
Starting with Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, there are primaries and runoffs in 30 different states in May and June:
+ May 13 - Nebraska, West Virginia
+ May 20 - Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania
+ May 27 - Texas (runoff)
+ June 3 - Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
+ June 10 - Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia
+ June 24 - Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma, New York, Utah
5. Elections mean Twitter Tuesdays
With 26 weeks until the November elections - exactly half a year from now - it means a lot of primary action in coming weeks. Join me during those Tuesday evenings on Twitter - @jamiedupree - for the latest numbers and insight on the road ahead for Congress in 2014. Will we have a sitting member of Congress defeated this week? Stay tuned.
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