From Boca Raton, Florida -
As President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney meet in their final debate on Monday night, let's take a snapshot of where the race stands in the "swing states" that will determine which way the 2012 race for the White House goes.
The race has definitely closed since the first Obama-Romney debate back on October 3 in Denver; Romney continues to hold a strong lead in the national Gallup tracking poll and has become much more competitive in the 2012 swing states - but - President Obama still enjoys a very narrow advantage at this point in the poll averages.
Here is my review with 15 days to go:
Florida (29 Electoral Votes) -This final debate certainly won't be the last time voters in Florida see the two major party candidates as it remains the top swing state prize on Election Day. The polls continue to be shaded slightly in favor of Romney (just over 2% in the poll average). Most interesting is that Romney has led in 11 of the last 13 statewide polls conducted in Florida - all of them done after the first debate in Denver. Both men have hit the all-important I-4 corridor repeatedly, but the President needs to be sure he turns out the vote in South Florida; this debate could be a walking advertisement for that effort as he will hold an event in Delray Beach the morning after the debate.
Pennsylvania (20) - I'm not yet convinced that Pennsylvania is in play, but clearly the polling lead for the President has narrowed; it was at 4% in a Quinnipiac poll last week. On Saturday, Paul Ryan made a short stop in Pennsylvania, stoking hopes among Republicans, as a number of GOP volunteers from Maryland went in to the Keystone State to help this weekend as well. The big question is obvious: was the Ryan stop outside Pittsburgh just for PR? Or will we see another Romney/Ryan visit? The schedule will give us a clue as to whether the Romney High Command really thinks a win is possible in Pennsylvania or whether it is just an election pipe dream. The Republicans have not won Pennsylvania since 1988.
Ohio (18) - More and more, Ohio is looking like the firewall for the President, unless Romney can somehow win in Pennsylvania. Despite gains in other states, Romney has not been able to edge ahead in the Buckeye State, as many believe the auto bailout efforts by the Obama Administration have paid dividends here and in Michigan. Just as the trends in Florida are obvious, so are the poll results in Ohio, as the President has been ahead in 9 of the last 13 Ohio polls - but - five of those polls have only given him an edge of one point, well within the margin of error. The President goes here the day after the debate, Vice President Biden is in Ohio on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday.
Michigan (16) - Republicans still hope to catch the President in Michigan, but the numbers have stayed in Mr. Obama's favor even as the race tightened in that state over the past two weeks. Romney is not advertising in Michigan (but there is Super PAC money on his behalf there) and the GOP standard bearer has not been in Michigan since a late August visit, though Paul Ryan was there last week for an event with Kid Rock. This may be the Democrats' version of North Carolina as the President has led in the last 17 polls conducted in Michigan since the week of the Republican convention in August.
North Carolina (15) - This past week the Romney campaign all but sent out a news release saying they were going to win the Tar Heel State, as officials let it be known that the GOP is shifting resources to other states. The Obama campaign scoffed at that, but the fact is the President has not been to the state since September 7. The poll edge is still with Romney, as he has been ahead in six of the last seven polls giving him a poll average advantage of over 5%.
Virginia (13) - The Old Dominion remains a toss up, as both sides have spent lot of time and money here. Last week, the Obama & Romney camps sparred repeatedly over women's issues, as they ran ads on abortion only in that state. The President's Friday speech in the Washington, D.C. suburbs was filled with references to women's issues, the Romney "binders of women" comment and more. A win here for Romney is extremely important. 6 of the last 8 polls - all taken since the first debate in Denver - have had Romney ahead in Virginia. Maybe that is what they call a "clue."
Wisconsin (10) - I still wonder about the Badger State, given the GOP success earlier this year in stopping the recall of Gov. Scott Walker. The polls have definitely closed in recent weeks, but this is another state where the President had stubbornly held on to his lead. The GOP won the recall turnout fight; can they repeat that effort over the next two weeks? Like Pennsylvania, the overview of the polls doesn't give much hope to Romney, as the President has led the last 15 state polls taken in Wisconsin, though Mr. Obama's average lead is now under 3%.
Colorado (9) - This state remains in play though the GOP has picked up momentum since the first debate in Denver. Both Romney and Obama are scheduled to stump in the Centennial State this week (Romney on Tuesday night, the President on Wednesday) so neither side is giving up. Romney has led in 6 of the last 10 polls in Colorado, but his lead in the poll average is under one point - in other words - a true toss up.
Nevada (6) - Also on the agenda for both campaigns this week is the Silver State; Democrats remain confident that they can deliver this state for the President - and as I showed last week - the polls have routinely underestimated Democratic voting numbers in 2004, 2008 & 2010. Will that happen again in 2012? Republicans thought this state was a big pickup opportunity. In 24 statewide polls this year on this race, President Obama has led in 21 of the last 24 polls, with the other three a tie. Still, the President's poll average lead is only 3%.
Iowa (6) - Don't ignore the Hawkeye State as this could be a pivotal battle in two weeks as the votes are counted. Democrats have the edge so far in absentee ballots, but new figures show Republicans now have a very narrow overall edge in voter registration. The President was in Iowa last week and will be there again on Wednesday. There have been five polls taken in Iowa since the first debate - the President led in three, Romney in one and the other was a tie, giving Mr. Obama an average lead of 2.4%
New Hampshire (4) - Mitt Romney had not been able to parlay his status as a neighbor of the Granite State or that he has a home on Lake Winnipesaukee into any momentum until last week when several polls suddenly showed the race closing. New Hampshire voters are a finicky lot; will they break for the challenger at the end or stick with the President? In five polls taken since the first debate, Romney has led in two, there have been two ties, and the President was ahead in one - the poll average gives Romney a one point lead. Those four Electoral Votes could still be very important.
BOTTOM LINE: The President still has the easier route to 270 Electoral Votes in November, but Romney cannot be counted out. Romney's route to victory most likely lies in the following breakdown:
If Romney were to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire, he would stand 18 Electoral Votes from victory. A win in Ohio would provide that - but if the President wins Ohio, then Romney would need to put together two states, like Wisconsin and Colorado, unless he were to win Pennsylvania.
For the President, wins in Ohio, Nevada and Michigan would put him only 9 Electoral Votes away from victory, meaning he could seal the deal with either Colorado or Wisconsin.
The Real Clear Politics poll averages yield an Obama win in the Electoral College of 277-261. But there's still 15 days until the votes are counted.
