Yes, the November elections for 2014 are still over nine months away - but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do a little Election Handicapping and peek at what might happen later this year in the U.S. House and Senate mid-term elections.
As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, the second mid-term election for a President often holds bad news for the party in power in the White House, as Republicans hope they can take over the Senate by winning a net of six seats.
Something similar happened in 1986, when we had the reverse of our current situation - back then, Republicans held the Senate and the White House, while Democrats were in charge in the House.
The Reagan Revolution had lost a little steam by 1986, and Democrats won control of the Senate, winning a net of eight seats.
As in 1986, very few people right now think the House is in play. But at the same time, there aren't many who see big gains for either party in that chamber.
The Senate - that could be different. So, let's take a look.
Republicans believe they have a very good chance to win a series of seats now held by Democrats:
North Carolina - this seat held by Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) may be tops on the GOP list of possible victories this year. When President Obama visited the Tar Heel State last week, Hagan was notably absent.
Arkansas - Republicans have put a lot of energy into the bid of Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) to knock off Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). Pryor certainly has name recognition on his side, as his father was both a Senator and Governor.
Alaska - Republicans certainly have tried to target Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK), but candidate recruitment could be an issue here for the GOP. Like Hagan in North Carolina, Begich has been hard on the White House over stumbles with the Obama health law.
South Dakota - For many in the GOP, this seat is already in their column, as ex-Gov. Mike Rounds tries to win the seat being vacated by Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). One warning - the GOP thought they had a seat locked up in North Dakota in 2012 - and it didn't happen on Election Day.
West Virginia - Another seat that Republicans believe will trend their way in November is this seat that is held now by Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), who is retiring after this year. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is the favorite for now.
There are five other seats that Republicans think they can win as well in November:
Louisiana - Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) may have the toughest race of her life in 2014, but Democrats believe the Landrieu name won't go down without a fight in the Bayou State. This race could well decide the Senate, as the open primary for this seat takes place on November 4, with the runoff in December.
Montana - With Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) soon to leave the Senate for the job of U.S. Ambassador to China, most assume that Lt. Gov. John Walsh will be appointed to fill the seat, giving him a boost for November. Walsh, who is expected to face Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT) in November, has been on the attack in recent days as my email inbox keeps getting missives on this race out west.
Iowa - The open seat of retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) was immediately of interest to the GOP, but it's not clear who the Republicans will nominate (Tea Party or Establishment wing). One good thing for the GOP, Gov. Terry Branstad (R) will be at the top of the ticket. Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the favorite on the Democratic side.
Michigan - The open seat of Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) should keep the attention of political handicappers in coming months, as Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI) is expected to face Republican Terry Lynn Land, who has given the GOP hope with some good poll numbers in recent weeks.
New Hampshire - The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) can win re-election easily - unless she has to face ex-Sen. Scott Brown, who has toyed with the idea of running from the Granite State, after having served as a Senator from Massachusetts. It may be a longshot for the GOP.
As for the Democrats, they are focusing on pickups in two states:
Georgia - This may be the best opportunity for the Democrats in 2014. The GOP could be on the verge of a divisive primary fight involving three sitting U.S. House members and a former GOP nominee for Governor. Ready to take the Democratic nomination is Michelle Nunn, daughter of ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, which provides instant name recognition. Whether it means victory is another question.
Kentucky - Democrats are hoping that they can knock of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell this year; McConnell has to face a Tea Party hopeful in the GOP primary named Matt Bevin - and then could face a difficult November election fight with Secretary of State Alison Grimes.
Republicans fumbled great chances to win Senate seats in both 2010 and 2012 - will they do the same thing again in 2014?
The bottom line right now seems to be that Republicans will pick up some seats in November. But will the GOP get to a net of six?
"Ask again later," my Magic 8-Ball just said.
Stay tuned.
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