As President Obama went to the White House Briefing Room on Friday to make comments on the Russian military moves in Ukraine, it was hard not to have a sense of déjà vu about how the United States was handling an aggressive Vladimir Putin.
"I'm deeply concerned about the situation," said the President. "The United States takes this matter very seriously."
Except that wasn't President Obama - that was President George W. Bush in August of 2008, when Russian forces invaded parts of Georgia, ignoring the verbal warnings of the U.S. and European nations.
Last Friday, President Obama almost exactly echoed Bush's words on Georgia, saying "we are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine."
Both U.S. Presidents were "deeply concerned" with Russian military moves.
But the Russians ignored such talk, and went ahead anyway in Georgia, taking lands that Putin still holds today.
Now a similar thing seems to be happening in Ukraine.
The scoreboard seems pretty clear: Putin 2, Obama & Bush 0.
It's easy for both parties to accuse the other of not doing enough on foreign policy. Democrats did that back in 2008, demanding that Mr. Bush do more about Putin's moves to annex parts of Georgia, South Ossettia and Abkhazia.
Now, Republicans are demanding that Mr. Obama do more about Putin's moves to seemingly annex parts of Ukraine.
Some in both parties called for the U.S. to boycott the next meeting of the G-8, set for Sochi in June.
But can you imagine Putin smiling as if to say, 'so what?'
Putin as Cold Warrior
Could there be something more simple here? That the United States has moved on from the Cold War in how it deals with the Russians, but Vladimir Putin has not?
Putin has repeatedly made clear that he wants to re-establish Russia as a world superpower. Part of his plan has been to push back against U.S. and European efforts to encircle Russia with pro-Western governments in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltics.
The U.S. certainly wasn't ready to go to war with the Russians over Georgia in 2008. It seems unlikely that the West is ready to go to war over Russian moves into Crimea, or even other parts of Ukraine.
So, where is the red line? Or, maybe the question is, is there a red line when it comes to Putin and some of the former Soviet satellites?
As we look back on the years that led up to World War II, the textbooks remind us that Europe (mainly the British and the French) shrunk in the face of Hitler's aggression; that they did little to stop him as he moved on Austria and Czechoslovakia.
Diplomacy was the choice at the time, a choice that in hindsight seemed weak; a choice which the Germans were able to easily take advantage of before war broke out in 1939.
I'm not trying to compare Putin to Hitler; but the choice of diplomacy is one that U.S. Presidents of both parties have embraced in the last six years to deal with Russian aggression, both in Georgia and in Ukraine.
And it hasn't really slowed down the Russian leader.
Putin clearly knows that verbal warnings from the West are just that - verbal warnings - with the use of military force not truly a reality.
So, one must ask the question - when would the U.S. and Europe (the Brits, French and/or Germans) think about a military response against Russia?
Moldova? Probably not. Belarus? Latvia? Estonia? Lithuania?
Some might scoff at that idea - but remember - six years ago, GOP Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin was ridiculed for suggesting that then Sen. Barack Obama's response to the Russian invasion of Georgia would only invite Putin to turn Russian eyes on Ukraine.
"Yes, I could see this one from Alaska," Palin said on her Facebook page this weekend, mocking her critics.
"I'm usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine," Palin added.
"Yes, Twitter, Sarah Palin totally called this exact Ukraine scenario 6 years ago," acknowledged foreign policy expert Blake Hounshell, who had slammed Palin's argument back in 2008.
So, tough words from President Bush and European leaders didn't stop Putin in 2008, and public warnings and tough words from President Obama and European leaders haven't stopped Putin so far in 2014.
George W. Bush looked into Putin's soul and thought he saw someone he could work with in a post-Cold War environment. It didn't turn out that way.
From body language at their meetings, Putin clearly regards Barack Obama as someone who merits no concern, someone Putin could roll over at any time, something that critics say has been obvious with Edward Snowden and in Syria.
So far, Putin seems to be pitching a shutout against the United States, no matter the party in the White House.
The question is, what does Putin do next, and where - and will the United States response be the same.
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