With 12 days left until Election Day, it might be time to remove a few states from the "swing state" category and analyze where the candidates are going - and are not going - in coming days.
The math has not changed much in recent days on this race, as Democrats have much more flexiblity in how President Obama can reach 270 Electoral Votes, while Mitt Romney has one basic path to victory.
The swing states that I have been operating with have been Florida, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire; some wonder if Pennsylvania should be on that list as well.
At this point, with no visits scheduled for North Carolina by President Obama, that state probably should be pushed into the "Lean Romney" category.
The President has not been to North Carolina since the Democratic convention; as of now, there is no hint that he will return to the Tar Heel State before Election Day, as Romney has led in six of the last seven polls.
On the Democratic side, it might be almost time to move Michigan out of the swing state category and into the "Lean Obama" column, as there are no scheduled visits to that state by either Romney or his running mate Paul Ryan.
The poll averages are still favoring the President in Michigan, even after a poll out on Wednesday showed a tie, though questions were immediately raised about its accuracy.
Another state that might follow along those lines is Nevada, even though Romney has spent a lot of time there in recent weeks.
Of the 17 polls in Nevada since Labor Day, the President has led in 15 - the other two were ties.
If you put North Carolina on the GOP side and send Nevada and Michigan to the Democrats, that would leave you with seven undecided states: Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado.
It would also give Mr. Obama an Electoral Vote edge of 243-206 - 270 is needed to win.
Romney's path to victory then must include wins in Florida, Virginia and Colorado, leaving Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
If Romney cannot win Ohio, then he has to win Wisconsin and either Iowa or New Hampshire.
So you see how narrow a margin there is for Romney to win at this point. If Romney can win Ohio, then he stands a much better chance at winning on Election Night.
Romney has not been to Wisconsin since late August; the President has only been there twice in recent months. And as of now, there is no hint that Romney will go to Pennsylvania.
The schedule does tell a story.
THURSDAY October 25
OBAMA: Florida, Virginia & Ohio
ROMNEY: Ohio
FRIDAY October 26
OBAMA: n/a
ROMNEY: Iowa & Ohio
SATURDAY October 27
OBAMA: New Hampshire
ROMNEY: Florida
SUNDAY October 28
OBAMA: n/a
ROMNEY: Virginia
MONDAY October 29
OBAMA: Florida, Ohio, Virginia
ROMNEY: n/a
