The Illinois Primary on Tuesday will guarantee the defeat of at least one more member of Congress, as already a sizeable number of seats will see new faces after this November's elections.
For example, of the 435 members elected in November of 2010, the "casualty list" is already 48 members who won't be on the ballot in November of 2012.
That's already an 11 percent turnover in the House, a number which will grow on Tuesday when Rep. Don Manzullo faces Rep. Adam Kinzinger in a Republican primary in Illinois, as the two were forced into the same race after redistricting.
One interesting note about that race is that Kinzinger is the Tea Party favorite who was elected in 2010 from Illinois, while Manzullo is the veteran Republican first elected in 1992 - let's see who wins on Tuesday.
The Manzullo-Kinzinger matchup isn't rare, as there will be at least 13 more member vs member contests this year in upcoming primaries and in the November elections, so that pushes the number of lawmakers not returning to over 60 for the U.S. House - even if no other members are defeated or decide against re-election.
That's almost 14 percent of the House - and who knows how many lawmakers will be tossed out by the voters in November.
Also remember that there will be 12 new faces in Congress from the states that are adding seats under congressional reapportionment - one reason you are seeing these member vs member races and some retirements.
This ongoing turnover is on top of the 94 new members of Congress who were swept into office in the 2010 elections - over 21 percent of the entire House of Representatives.
Then add in the 54 new members of the House from the 2008 elections - that was a change of 12 percent.
Voters have been culling the Congressional Herd on a regular basis in recent years and 2012 seems like it will be no different.
Already, two incumbents have lost, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH).
We will add one more to that list today in Illinois.
