If you are looking for clues about this year's mid-term Congressional elections, there are only two states to focus on Tuesday night, as voters go to the polls for U.S. House and Senate primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.
So, let's take a look at what to expect for voting on May 13, 2014.
1. It's all about the GOP Senate race in Nebraska
Most of the attention will go to the Republican race for Senate in Nebraska, where three candidates - and a bunch of outside groups - are hoping to chart a path to victory in a race that presents another opportunity for Tea Party groups. Unlike other races - like North Carolina last week - the Republican nominee should be the favorite to win in November, so this is not really about whether the GOP nominates someone that can't win a general election - instead this is more of the struggle within the GOP over its direction.
2. Sasse, Osborn & Dinsdale
Here's a quick thumbnail on each of the top three GOP hopefuls for U.S. Senate in Nebraska:
+ The Tea Party favorite is Ben Sasse, who has netted endorsements from Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz and others.
+ The candidate more aligned with the GOP "Establishment" is Shane Osborn, who was once the Nebraska State Treasurer, though Osborne has local Tea Party support as well.
+ The longshot who has been gaining steam in recent weeks is Omaha banker Sid Dinsdale; one of his notable endorsements was from former Congressman - and former head football coach at Nebraska - Tom Osborne.
3. Could this be a repeat of 2012?
In some ways, we might be watching a repeat of what happened two years ago in Nebraska, when the top two candidates beat up on each other with negative attacks, allowing a third candidate, Deb Fischer, to win the primary and ultimately make it to the U.S. Senate. So far in 2014, much of the campaign oxygen in this Republican race has featured battles between Sasse and Osborn, with outside groups funneling money into attack ads and more - and then in recent weeks, Dinsdale started to gather momentum. Can Dinsdale be the 2014 Fischer?
4. The Tea Party could use a national win
Yes, the Tea Party has won some internal fights in the GOP (the Republican Party Chair in the district of Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia for example) but polls haven't shown great traction for some of the more conservative candidates running for U.S. Senate in Georgia, Kentucky and other states. A loss here for Sasse would only extend the news media theme that the Tea Party is struggling on the national stage this year. Of course, like in sports, it only takes one win to turn things around, and maybe Nebraska is the state, and Ben Sasse is that candidate. Stay tuned tonight for results on Twitter @jamiedupree.
5. How about something on West Virginia
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is expected to win the GOP nomination for Senate, while Secretary of State Natalie Tennant is the strong favorite on the Democratic side. There is a wide open race on the GOP side for Capito's seat in the House, and while Rep. Nick Joe Rahall (D) might have a difficult race in November, one thing to watch on Tuesday night is to see if there is any kind of protest vote against him and in favor of Richard Ojeda. After all, West Virginia Democrats did cast over 40% of their 2012 primary votes for a guy who was in jail in Texas - instead of President Obama.
About the Author
