While both parties are jabbing furiously at each other over major issues like the Obama health law, a minimum wage increase, climate change, entitlement spending reform and more, don't look for much of that to be up for actual votes anytime soon in the U.S. House or Senate.
After all - this is an election year - the mid-term Congressional elections are in November - and so far it feels like most of the political boxing on Capitol Hill is going to be done for the consumption of the voters back home, and not in terms of heavy legislative lifting.
So, let's look at five things that lawmakers in the Congress might talk about a lot, but may not won't vote on in 2014.
1. Major entitlement reforms
As we detailed last week, with the White House yanking what's known as "chained CPI" out of the 2015 budget, the chances for any meaningful efforts in Congress to rein in entitlement spending seem very remote. "Mr. Obama backpedals on entitlement reform," read an editorial in the Washington Post over the wekeend, which labeled "chained CPI" an "efficient method of long term deficit reduction." But while Democrats move away from the idea, don't look for Republicans to suddenly schedule a vote on the plan in the House - many GOP lawmakers would be worried about being attacked by Democrats during an election for voting to cut the rate of growth in Social Security and other government benefits. That's why any major entitlement reforms will have to be achieved with a bipartisan agreement.
2. Climate change legislation
This summer will mark five years since the House approved that "Cap and Trade" bill on global warming. Since then, even with Democrats still in charge of the Senate, no legislation on greenhouse gases/global warming/climate change has received a vote - and don't expect that to happen any time soon in 2014. Even if Democratic leaders thought they could get a political edge by bringing a climate change bill to the floor, it would never get 60 votes in the current Congress, and actually might put more heat on several Democrats who are in difficult re-election races. President Obama took some executive actions in recent days on climate change - that may be as active as things get on that hot-button topic in Washington this year.
3. A budget resolution
After last year's budget deal, it isn't clear if the House or Senate will even more forward with a non-binding 'budget resolution' - the framework for the 2015 budget - for similar reasons. Neither party wants to give the other the chance to lob rhetorical attacks against a budget outline that will never have the force of law, and maybe in the process, score a few political points against incumbents who are in difficult races. Congress is supposed to approve a budget resolution by April 15 of each year; last year there was a plan that threatened to dock the pay of lawmakers if they failed - that's not in force this year. If a budget resolution is going to get to the House and Senate floor, it needs to happen by April 10, when lawmakers leave for a two-week Easter break. And there are only 24 legislative work days between now and then, with a week off scheduled around the time of March Madness.
4. Immigration reform legislation
While top Republicans have signaled that they want to go forward with votes on bills related to immigration reform, it's not clear whether the House GOP will actually do that this year. Many GOP lawmakers say the multiple changes made by the Obama Administration to the President's health law only make it less likely that Republicans will approve a bill that might have its edges sanded down by the Executive Branch as it is being implemented. More hearings are expected on the issue in the House, but even Democrats seem downbeat about the chances of any bill making it to the House floor - and even if one does, it is likely to be very limited in nature.
5. Obama health law changes
Republicans in the House have said they will move a bill to the floor that would make major changes in the Obama health law - but there is no guarantee that any GOP option on health care could muster a majority in the House. Republicans agree they don't like the health reform law, but they certainly aren't in agreement on what should be done as an alternative. In recent years, Republicans have had a series of ideas on how best to deal with health care - but other than various efforts to repeal part of all of the health law - the GOP has never brought its own plans up for a vote. We'll see if they really do in 2014. In the Senate, Republicans would love to put a small group of endangered Democrats on the spot about the health law, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid shows no signs of loosening his grip on amendments that might be offered by GOP Senators on the health law issue.
About the Author
