Since the sequester went into effect in early March, Political Washington has taken a break from the deadline politics of the fiscal cliff and threats of a government shutdown, but in coming weeks and months, that may well return as a staple of the daily political battles in Congress.
Once again this year, the Congress has not finished the dozen bills that fund the operations of the federal government, so a temporary stop-gap budget will be needed to avoid a government shutdown.
The end of the fiscal year is September 30; the House passed only four of the 12 budget bills for next year, while the Senate approved none of those measures - as there are only two weeks to work out some kind of funding agreement.
There are two main hurdles to a deal on a temporary budget - one involves an internal struggle amongst Republicans over demands to block money for the Obama health law; the other is the basic divide between the parties (and somewhat within the GOP as well) on the simple question of what funding level should be approved for the federal government until after Thanksgiving.
Let's start with the Obama health law.
Many Republicans want to "defund Obamacare" with the stop gap budget, basically daring the White House to risk a government shutdown over GOP efforts to shut off money for the signature legislative achievement of President Obama.
While this is a big issue for the GOP, it's still hard to find more than a few wobbly knees among Democrats in the Congress over funding the health law at this point.
The White House argues that the law is just about to really start kicking in, as strong supporters of the plan say there is no way they will give in on that issue.
"Republicans keep finding new ways to disregard the best interests of the American people," House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said of the latest GOP plan to delay part of the Obama health law.
"It’s time for them to stop playing political games," she added.
In terms of details, more conservative Republicans have started rallying around a plan from Rep. Tom Graves (R-GA) that would "defund" the health law - for one year.
"This approach builds upon the Obama Administration’s policy of delaying portions of Obamacare and relieves taxpayers of the burden of funding a program that is not being implemented," Graves said.
More conservative groups like the Club for Growth and Freedom Works quickly signed on to the Graves plan, which had netted well over 40 co-sponsors as of last week - but it wasn't clear whether GOP leaders would embrace it as well.
Last week, GOP leaders in the House came up with a parliamentary gimmick to make it seem like the House was voting to "defund" the health law, but then allow the Senate to easily brush that aside and approve the underlying temporary funding measure.
That didn't work; it's still not clear what solution GOP leaders will embrace.
And regardless of what they choose, Democrats say any plan that includes efforts to undercut or block funding for the Obama health law is not going anywhere in the U.S. Senate.
Could there be a couple of Democrats in the Senate who might vote to delay the law? Sure. But it's hard to imagine more than a few.
What about funding levels?
When it comes to how much money will be spent in a temporary budget, this is where things get even more interesting.
As one might expect, Democrats are on the high side. They want a budget of $1.058 trillion, which basically means the sequester has been wiped away, mainly through new tax increases.
But Republicans are adamant that they will not accept such a plan.
GOP lawmakers have zeroed in on two different funding levels, $986 billion and $967 billion.
Speaker Boehner floated a plan in the House last week that spends at the rate of $986 billion on the domestic discretionary budget, which would be the same amount as the current budget year, post sequestration.
Basically, that is a budget freeze.
But - and here's the important part - sequestration will hit again in January under the Budget Control Act, forcing the budget down to $967 billion.
And that's where a number of GOP budget hawks want the budget to be - at $967 billion, while the Speaker and the Appropriations Committee favor spending $21 billion more than that.
The Speaker's plan would funnel extra money into the military, as a number of Republicans argue the Pentagon has suffered too much so far from the sequester.
Obviously, there are a lot of Democrats who don't like either one of those figures, $967 billion or $986 billion.
Mix in the fact that Republicans are divided - both over what to do on the Obama health law, and on basic funding levels - and you can imagine a scenario where no deal is reached.
And if that's the case on October 1, then we would have a government shutdown.
Breaking down the Shutdown Scenarios
Will there be a deal? Or will there be a shutdown?
First, the House has to pass something to fund the government after September 30. Let's just assume that it includes a plan to "defund" the Obama health law.
No matter, the underlying funding figure, one would expect the Senate will reject any plan to block funding for the health law.
Then, the issue is - what level should the government be funded at until December 15 (or a different, shorter term date).
Would Democrats side with Boehner and accept a budget freeze, leaving the budget at $986 billion?
That's all in flux right now.
Originally, the House was going to be out the week of September 23 - but now GOP leaders have indicated that lawmakers may have to work that week, and possibly the last weekend of the month, as Congress looks for a deal by September 30.
Tick, tick, tick.
Deadline politics are back in Washington, D.C.
