The Maxwell Ratings Playoff Projections this week suggest that Cedar Grove will be your Class AAA state football champion nearly half of the time in the computer projections.
Despite Calhoun's place at the top of the rankings all season, the Maxwell Ratings picks the Saints, 50 percent of the time, to win the 2018 title. So how did that assumption come about?
Let's hear it from Loren Maxwell, the computer-based creator, before we break down the numbers by each of the bracket's quadrants.
"The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2018 season," Maxwell explains. "The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons. While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team's strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season's structure as defined by the games, region alignments and playoff brackets. All out-of-state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team's classification (i.e., out-of-state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team). Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head-to-head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tiebreaker."
In laymen's terms, you should look at the number beside your team which shows how many times it is projected to make it to each round of the playoffs. If your number is higher than the opponent's number, according to the simulation, your team has the better chance to advance.
The projections showed 931,256.33 times that the upcoming state champion should come from a group of teams that includes Cedar Grove, Calhoun, Peach County or Monroe Area. Cedar Grove is the odds leader (1.38), ahead of Calhoun (4.05) and Peach County (4.18). After Monroe Area (7.34), there is a big jump to Greater Atlanta Christian (34.02 odds).
Here's the bracket breakdown, based on projections:
-- Top-left quadrant --
Jackson at Pierce County
To reach the quarterfinals, the Maxwell model showed Jackson 331,147.43 times; Pierce County 668,852.57 times.
Semifinals: Jackson (41,097.60); Pierce County (150,301.64)
Finals: Jackson (3,396.15); Pierce County (21,641.14)
Championship: Jackson (347.61); Pierce County (1,209.88)
Dawson County at Monroe Area
Quarterfinals: Dawson County (246,939.91); Monroe Area (753,060.09)
Semifinals: Dawson County (165,107.41); Monroe Area (643,493.35)
Finals: Dawson County (32,982.64); Monroe Area (250,837.82)
Championship: Dawson County (8,515.80); Monroe Area (119,937.30)
-- Bottom-left quadrant --
Westside-Macon at Benedictine
Quarterfinals: Westside-Macon (300,272.62); Benedictine (699,727.38)
Semifinals: Westside-Macon (30,045.70); Benedictine (129,133.10)
Finals: Westside-Macon (7,227.78); Benedictine (51,576.87)
Championship: Westside-Macon (1,109.82 ); Benedictine (13,872.88)
North Hall at Cedar Grove
Quarterfinals: North Hall (75,090.63); Cedar Grove (924,909.37)
Semifinals: North Hall (28,336.99); Cedar Grove (812,484.22)
Finals: North Hall (7,200.02); Cedar Grove (625,137.57)
Championship: North Hall (1,209.88); Cedar Grove (420,149.28)
-- Top-right quadrant --
Liberty County at Peach County
Quarterfinals: Liberty County (55,409.52); Peach County (944,590.48)
Semifinals: Liberty County (7,679.54); Peach County (684,485.36)
Finals: Liberty County (898.00); Peach County (407,655.69)
Championship: Liberty County (63.94); Peach County (193,159.61)
Westminster at Greater Atlanta Christian
Quarterfinals: Westminster (366,560.71); Greater Atlanta Christian (633,439.29)
Semifinals: Westminster (89,045.24); Greater Atlanta Christian (218,789.85)
Finals: Westminster (27,786.24); Greater Atlanta Christian (92,541.01)
Championship: Westminster (6,443.16); Greater Atlanta Christian (28,556.00)
-- Bottom-right quadrant --
Jenkins at Pike County
Quarterfinals: Jenkins (442,258.76); Pike County (557,741.24)
Semifinals: Jenkins (20,322.31); Pike County (34,979.86)
Finals: Jenkins (862.88); Pike County (1,988.89)
Championship: Jenkins (31.73); Pike County (99.80)
Lovett at Calhoun
Quarterfinals: Lovett (162,057.27); Calhoun (837,942.73)
Semifinals: Lovett (137,662.96); Calhoun (807,034.87)
Finals: Lovett (28,260.53); Calhoun (440,006.76)
Championship: Lovett (4,856.49); Calhoun (198,010.14)
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