Hey y’all. Guess what?
Yes, yes. Chicken butt.
But also: It’s finally another Win Column Wednesday, and we’re tackling everything from on-field football fights and Falcons futility to an (extremely theoretical) Hawks trade.
I let Loren Maxwell fix the College Football Playoff, too.
SUBMIT TO OUR MATHEMATICAL OVERLORDS
No waffling between Miami and Notre Dame (or subsequent grievance campaigns from the Whining Irish). No fretting over Tulane, James Madison or any other Group of Five squad. Alabama? Texas? Vandy? BYU?
Just plug ‘em in and see what happens, man.
Because we don’t have to live like this. We don’t need suits in a suite sussing out who belongs in the College Football Playoffs.
There’s a better way.
We’re going back to the computers.
The Maxwell computers, to be precise. As in Loren Maxwell, the guy best known for providing the very math-y high school football ratings and projections you love.
His LinkedIn page includes phrases like “multivariate regression” and “Bayesian analysis” and, more importantly, the GHSA uses his proprietary rating system in real life. It recently considered adopting his newer “extended standings” model for the playoffs, too.
So … why not level up and apply them to one of the sports world’s hottest debates? Mr. Maxwell graciously agreed to do so — and I think you’ll find the results mighty interesting.
It’s admittedly a tad small, so here’s what you’re looking at (more detail here, in the original spreadsheet):
⬅️ The list on the left uses Maxwell’s extended standings model, which essentially creates a pecking order by simulating how things would play out if every team played every other team.
- See what happened there? Current CFP teams Alabama, Tulane and James Madison are out. Notre Dame is in (at No. 6, no less), along with BYU and Utah.
➡️ The list at right uses Maxwell’s GHSA rating formula to evaluate teams, then calculates a “strength of record” — “which is a probability of how often a pretty good team would have gotten the same record or better against another team’s schedule,” he explained. The lower the percentage, the more impressive the resume.
- That one doesn’t have Miami, Notre Dame or the G5 teams, instead plugging in BYU, Utah and Texas.
Not sure the Longhorns and their three regular-season losses really belong. And, as Loren pointed out, these systems do *not* figure in conference championships.
But all in all, not too shabby, eh?
Now, I want to be clear: This is mostly a thought experiment. I also bear no ill will toward the smaller schools but, absent very specific scenarios, there’s no place for them in a 12-team affair. I know everyone hated our previous Computer Era (the BCS), too.
This ain’t that, though — and wouldn’t things be easier if we just gave in?
No weekly TV shows. No dudes standing there making up rationale on the fly then choosing whoever they want anyway. Less debate. Less yelling.
Just some responsible adults using empirical data to guide our decisions. Not perfect, but sane … er.
If any sport can make that work, it’s college football.
Right?
Let me know if you love (or hate) it — and tune in to next week’s Win Column to see the title odds Maxwell cooked up for each of this year’s CFP teams.
WANNA TRADE TRAE?
I thought about doing a poll here about the best Pop-Tart flavor, in honor of Brent Key and the Yellow Jackets’ Pop-Tart Bowl nod. But seeing as frosted strawberry is the only correct answer, I picked an even tastier topic.
🤔 Namely: If you were the Hawks’ GM, what would you trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo?
The Milwaukee Bucks superstar is (maybe, possibly, reportedly) on the rocks with his longtime franchise. Atlanta has the ammo to pull off a swap, but it wouldn’t be cheap: ESPN puts the theoretical price tag at Trae Young, Zaccharie Risacher and four first-round picks.
Would you pull the trigger?
- A. All day, every day.
- B. That’s a lot of picks but … probably.
- C. Not Trae! I love Trae!
- D. Actually, I’d like to see how things play out with the current roster.
Submit your answer here, or feel free to email me directly.
🪙 Tyler’s 2 cents: I’m a big Trae Guy™ and also tend to doubt anything will happen … but if you can pull off something like this without giving up Dyson Daniels or triple-double machine Jalen Johnson? Oh yeah.
PUTTING THE ‘L’ IN ATL
The Falcons have officially clinched … their eighth straight losing (and playoff-less) season.
But has it really been that bad?
Ahead of Thursday night’s game with the Bucs (8:15 p.m. on NFL Network), I took a closer look at some key indicators since the start of the 2018 season.
- 4 head coaches (five if you count Raheem Morris’ interim stint in 2020)
- 11 offensive and defensive coordinators (12 if you count Jeff Ulbrich’s 2020 stint as DC)
- 6 starting quarterbacks
- 6.7 wins per year, on average, not counting this season.
For comparison, let’s turn to two icons of NFL ineptitude: the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns. Over the same time period, by my count:
- Jets: Four head coaches (five if you count Ulbrich’s interim stint), 11 starting quarterbacks and 5.1 wins per season.
- Browns: Three head coaches (plus an interim), 15 starting quarterbacks and 7.5 wins per season.
Suppose it could be worse, but not much. We should demand better, from owner Arthur Blank on down.
WHAT’S IN THE WATER IN GAINESVILLE?
Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillon had roughly the same reaction as you when he saw the on-field fight.
No, not that one. The second one. With Gainesville High’s flag football team.
“I was like, ‘Oh my gosh, again? What?”
Although …
“It seemed like the Gainesville girls learned from the incident with the boys, because they did not leave the bench. So that was a plus.”
I caught up with Couvillon on Tuesday. He conceded neither on-field fight was “a good look” but suggested that, all things considered, the Red Elephants (still an incredible name) showed a fair amount of restraint.
- Brunswick football coach resigns in wake of Gainesville altercation
- GHSA state championships: Full schedule, matchups
He’s got plenty of beef with the GHSA, too, calling it “incredibly petty” for the organization to appeal the initial court injunction reversing most players’ suspensions.
“If those adults from the GHSA had really taken a step back they could’ve figured out a way to not make this the big spectacle that it turned in to,” he said.
In terms of vibes, Couvillon said the city is just stoked the team won last week and, despite the distractions, is one win away from a 5A state title game. Thursday night’s delayed semifinal at Rome is a big one.
“Gainesville loves football,” Couvillon said. “We have a proud tradition.”
🔗 Bonus link: GHSA playoff delay draws parallels to Douglass-Lakeside chaos 50 years ago
SOME BRAVES-RELATED THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW
⚾ I don’t have anything particularly original or insightful to say about voters failing again to put Dale Murphy in the Baseball Hall of Fame. But if you’re wondering how he’s handling it:
- “Nancy and I and our family couldn’t be more honored and grateful for all the support and kindness. It wasn’t the outcome we were hoping for but we’re good and we’ll be hoping for another chance in 3 years!”
⚾ All quiet, transaction wise, from Alex Anthopoulos and crew at MLB’s winter meetings so far. But they did land the No. 9 overall pick in the upcoming draft.
- In terms of the competition: Now-former Mets closer Edwin Diaz signed with the Dodgers (ugh) and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies.
- Don’t expect the Bravos to pony up for a full-time DH.
⚾ Braves starter Grant Holmes is having a “normal offseason” after rehabbing his partially torn elbow ligament. On the other side of things: Anthopoulos warned against counting on would-be eighth-inning guy Joe Jimenez in 2026.
PHOTO OF THE WEEK
They don’t call it the beautiful game for nothing, amirite? (Complete AJC World Cup coverage here.)
Thanks for reading to the very bottom of Sports Daily. Questions, comments, ideas? Contact me at tyler.estep@ajc.com.
Until next time.
About the Author
Tyler Estep hosts the AJC Win Column, Atlanta's new weekly destination for all things sports. He also shepherds the Sports Daily and Braves Report newsletters to your inbox.
