AJC poll: Jon Ossoff leads Mike Collins in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race

Just a year ago, Jon Ossoff was considered the most vulnerable incumbent in the U.S. Senate — the only Democrat facing reelection in a state won by President Donald Trump in 2024.

Not anymore.

A new poll from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows Ossoff with a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Mike Collins.

Nearly 48% of voters surveyed said they would vote to reelect the Atlanta Democrat, compared with 40% who said they support Collins. Nearly 12% said they were undecided.

The results are part of a new survey conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs for the AJC ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

While the poll found that Georgia’s governor’s race is a statistical dead heat, Ossoff’s 7% lead is well outside the survey’s 3.1% margin of error.

Ossoff’s fiery campaign has gained national attention and fueled speculation — which he has dismissed — of a presidential run. He also holds a massive fundraising lead, which Collins has never been able to erase.

Collins has continued to tout his MAGA bona fides and his ties to Trump, who remains popular among his Georgia Republican base.

Ossoff’s campaign declined to respond to the poll results. Collins’ campaign spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said that his campaign is not paying much attention to these numbers.

“The only poll that counts is happening right now with early voting at the ballot box,” he said in a statement. “Mike Collins is running the hardest-working campaign in America and earning votes in every corner of Georgia.”

Siegfried said that Ossoff is “running scared back to his billionaire donors in California, New York, and Illinois, because they’re the only ones who can afford his far-left agenda.”

Ossoff headlined fundraisers in Los Angeles earlier this week.

The poll found Collins leading among white voters, those age 65 and up and respondents who did not attend college.

Ossoff’s support, meanwhile, was strongest among women, Black voters, younger people and college-educated respondents.

The candidates each earned 43% support from male voters.

The poll also found that 13% of people who identify as conservative plan to vote for Ossoff, compared with just 4% of liberals who said they support Collins.

Linda Adcock’s vote was also about Trump and the Republican Party. But she is voting for Collins.

“It’s not necessarily him as the person; it’s more because I want the Republicans to keep power in the Senate,” the Braselton resident said.

A majority of voters polled, 55%, said they approve of how Ossoff is handling his job as senator compared with 35% who somewhat or strongly disapprove.

Among independent voters, 61% gave Ossoff a positive approval rating.

Shawn Houston, who lives in South Fulton, said she will vote early for Ossoff. She pivoted careers after a job layoff and spent years taking care of her elderly parents, which has caused her to focus on where the candidates stand on the economy and healthcare.

Her Affordable Care Act healthcare policy costs went up drastically after Republicans refused to vote with Democrats to extend subsidies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. She has friends who want to save for a house but find they can’t afford it.

“Everything is too much,” Houston said. “The gas is too much. The food is too much.”

The AJC poll comes amid other troubling signs for Collins’ campaign, including a series of reports about people in his circle expressing racist and extremist viewpoints and news that the Republican Party and affiliated groups are shifting money to other battleground states.

Politico reported last month that U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Senate Republicans that he was focusing his money on races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.

He made no mention of Georgia or North Carolina, where the Democratic candidates are strongly favored, the report said.

An NRSC spokesman did not respond to questions Tuesday about the group’s spending in Georgia. Instead, press secretary Nick Puglia sent a statement criticizing Ossoff.