AJC poll: Georgia’s downballot races are deadlocked
The races for some of Georgia’s top elected offices are a dead heat, setting up a last-minute scramble that will have big implications for how state government operates come January.
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey of likely Georgia voters shows the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state are deadlocked just a week and a half before the Nov. 3 election.
Georgia has eight statewide executive branch elected offices. The governor gets most of the power and all of the attention. But the other offices play key roles in state government.
Democrats have not won one of these seats since 2006. But this year, three Republicans — Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — all gave up their seats for ultimately failed bids for governor.
That created open seats in a year Republican candidates are struggling amid President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers, giving Democrats their best chance in years to have a say in the state’s day-to-day operations.
The poll results suggest Georgia continues to transform from a Republican stronghold to a true swing state — one that could make or break the ambitions of either party. While that dynamic has focused national attention on the state’s races for U.S. Senate and governor, the results of key down-ballot races could have just as big an impact on ordinary Georgians.
The AJC survey, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, found a statistical dead heat among the three open seats for downballot constitutional offices, all within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points:
- In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat Josh McLaurin has the support of about 42% of likely voters, compared to 39% for Republican Greg Dolezal. More than 17% of likely voters are undecided.
- Democrat secretary of state nominee Penny Brown Reynolds is at 43%, compared with 42% for Republican Tim Fleming. More than 14% of likely voters are undecided.
- Democrat Tanya Miller and Republican Brian Strickland each have about 44% support in the attorney general’s race. More than 11% of voters are undecided.
The outcome of the races could lead to a dramatic remaking of state government.
The lieutenant governor presides over the Georgia Senate. If McLaurin wins and Republicans retain control of the Senate, as expected, the potential for conflict could escalate in a chamber that already bristles with it.
The secretary of state oversees elections, a formerly somewhat mundane job that has become a partisan lightning rod since Trump falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen. The next secretary of state must deal not only with Trump’s ongoing claims of voting fraud but with a majority on the State Election Board, which is often in lockstep with the Trump administration. Plus, the next secretary of state must certify a new voting system which lawmakers expect to be in place for the 2028 presidential election.
The attorney general defends Georgia laws, advises state agencies and prosecutes some crimes. The office also pursues some civil litigation that is inherently political. Carr, the current Republican attorney general, sued the Biden administration over various policies. A Democratic attorney general could take an aggressive approach against Trump administration policies.
It’s unclear how much Democratic victories would shift state policies, even if they win some offices. If they win one or more statewide offices, Republicans could convene a special legislative session to strip the offices of some of their powers before the Democrats take office in January.
Gwinnett County resident Jack Barnes said he favors Democrats up and down the ballot. He wants elected officials who will stand up to Trump, who Barnes believes has led the country in the wrong direction.
“The Republicans have been absolutely silent and a rubber stamp all across the country,” Barnes said.
AJC poll: October 2026
The AJC poll of 1,000 likely general election voters in Georgia was conducted via telephone by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs Oct. 7-15. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
Likely voters had cast a ballot in the 2022 general election and/or the 2024 general election and/or the 2026 statewide primary; who indicated they were currently registered to vote in Georgia; and who were definitely or probably going to vote in the 2026 general election.
U.S. Senate race: Jon Ossoff leads Mike Collins in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race
Race for governor: Bottoms, Jackson deadlocked in race for Georgia governor
The president: Trump’s approval remains underwater in Georgia
Technology: Georgians want government to regulate AI; most oppose data centers.
AJC poll archive: See past polls of Georgia voters
Columbia County resident James Tate said he opposes the Democrats, supports Trump and plans to vote a straight Republican ticket. Tate used to consider himself an independent, but he said Democrats have become too extreme.
“Both parties used to want what’s best for the American people,” Tate said. “That’s not true anymore. The Democrats want socialism.”
As their comments suggest, Trump remains the lens through which many voters across the political spectrum view this year’s election. The AJC survey found a majority of likely Georgia voters disapprove of the job the president is doing. But his approval rating is largely unchanged from the AJC’s April 2025 survey.
That suggests that — like many of the down-ballot races — Trump’s effect on Georgia elections remains to be determined.