AJC poll: Angry voters put Georgia’s GOP grip to the test

Georgia voters are mad. They’re pessimistic about the nation’s direction. And they’re heading into the final full week of an exhausting election spoiling to make their voices heard.

The final sprint promises more fireworks, with both parties summoning their biggest names to Georgia for a showdown that could reshape the state’s political landscape.

President Donald Trump just made his second Georgia campaign stop in eight days. Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris are headed to the state this week.

And candidates up and down the ballot are racing to convert the electorate’s fury and frustration into votes.

With just eight days until the Nov. 3 midterms, the political temperature is rising. And a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Democrats have a fighting chance to break the GOP’s grip on state government for the first time in a generation.

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff has an 8-point edge over Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. And Democratic candidates in open races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state are neck-and-neck with their Republican rivals. Analysts even give Democrats an outside shot at flipping the Georgia House.

The early vote has only sharpened the stakes. About 1.5 million Georgians had already cast ballots by late last week, about 5% ahead of the same stage of the 2022 midterms. Turnout in Democratic-leaning areas is outpacing many Republican strongholds.

Behind it all is a deep sense of unease with the nation’s trajectory. Nearly six in 10 likely Georgia voters say the nation is on the wrong track, while a majority disapprove of Trump’s performance. And concerns about inflation and the cost of living continue to dominate voters’ priorities.

“We’re not going in the right direction. We’re headed toward a horrible, horrible future,” said Spencer Telligman, a Forsyth County retail worker. “We definitely have the wrong leadership now.”

Rod Ochs, a Canton consultant, was just as blunt about the nation’s economic outlook. His household bills, from utilities to food, are going up.

“We have skyrocketing inflation that’s only getting worse,” he said.

Still, Georgians are more upbeat about the state’s track record. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s approval rating is pushing 70%, and a narrow majority say the state is headed in the right direction.

Richard Williams, a Richmond Hill retiree, described himself as “nervously optimistic” about more consensus under the Gold Dome no matter who wins in November.

“Down here in South Georgia, we say the best thing about Georgia is that Atlanta is in it. And we also say the worst thing about Georgia is that Atlanta is in it,” he said. “We need more common sense in Atlanta.”

A divide at the top

At his rally Saturday in Perry, Trump tried to rally Republicans around a united ticket. But the two top Republicans are taking drastically different campaign approaches.

Rick Jackson, the nominee for governor, and Senate contender U.S. Rep. Mike Collins hardly cross paths on the campaign trail, despite Trump’s onstage portrayal of a unified GOP front.

Jackson hardly ever mentions Collins at his rallies and has increasingly cast himself as Kemp’s political heir rather than Trump’s loyal deputy.

Collins has embraced the opposite strategy, leaning into his “MAGA Mike” persona and promising to stand with the president at every turn.

The latest AJC poll shows the gulf between them. Jackson draws support from 94% of Republican voters, compared with 86% for Collins. He also fares far better with independents.

And while Jackson is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, Ossoff’s steady leads have helped push Georgia down the priority list for national Republicans.

Big-money GOP groups that once pledged roughly $60 million to defeat Ossoff have sharply scaled back their support for Collins, whose campaign has been dogged by a string of controversies involving aides and allies — and who has little financial firepower of his own.

He enters the final stretch with just $1 million in his account, compared with the $26 million that Ossoff reported.

Jackson, meanwhile, is assembling his own cast of reinforcements to target Bottoms’ record, arguing that “bad mayors don’t make good governors.”

He enlisted U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz for a Friday rally in Henry County, where a parade of GOP leaders delivered increasingly urgent pleas for Republicans to show up at the polls.

It was former Gov. Sonny Perdue, who flipped the seat in 2002, who offered the bluntest warning that GOP complacency could hand Bottoms and Democrats back the Governor’s Mansion.

“You think it can’t happen? It can happen if you sit on your hands,” he said, scanning the crowd of hundreds gathered at a converted aircraft hangar on a rural farm.

“I truly believe there are more people in Georgia who believe like we do than the other side. But, folks, the game is played by who shows up. And if we don’t show up, they win. And I can’t even contemplate the change in Georgia if that happens,” he said.

‘Whole ballot energy’

Democrats, meanwhile, are betting that Ossoff’s strength, Trump’s political baggage and a slate of candidates hoping to make history can finally crack the GOP’s hold on state government.

Bottoms and Ossoff have joined forces in a closing push, hoping the tandem will help carry Democrats across the ballot.

Bottoms calls it “whole ballot energy.” She’s pairing that pitch with relentless attacks on Jackson’s lucrative state contracts, portraying the billionaire as a walking conflict of interest trying to buy his way into the Governor’s Mansion.

And after months of being buried under Jackson’s spending, she’s firing back with a late barrage of TV ads promoting her policies and painting him as a Trump wannabe.

She’ll never match Jackson’s financial firepower. Republicans expect the billionaire to spend as much as $200 million on the race, including a record $87 million ad buy after he won the nomination.

But Bottoms has finally found some financial footing. Her campaign says it has raised $23.2 million since the beginning of August, a surge that has given Bottoms more room to counter Jackson’s attacks.

Above all, Democrats are trying to make the election a referendum on Trump. They’re tying Republicans up and down the ballot to the president’s policies and casting a Democratic victory as a check on his power.

Ossoff has sharpened his attacks on the White House, while Bottoms and other statewide candidates are tying their Republican opponents to Trump’s policies.

“The president’s visit will remind Georgians of the president’s failures,” Ossoff said at a Stonecrest stop, pointing to the war with Iran, tariffs and higher gas prices.

The final push

The final week will bring another parade of political heavyweights.

Obama will headline a Wednesday rally in Atlanta for Bottoms and Ossoff. Harris plans to campaign with Ossoff on Friday, the final day of early voting.

Republicans, meanwhile, are counting on Trump’s visits to fire up the faithful, even as some worry he’ll give Democrats another reason to vote. But for loyalists like Brent Taylor, the president remains their best hope for turning things around.

“If we can continue to trust him, he’s going to pull us through. Look what he’s already done,” said Taylor, a Griffin paralegal.

“He’s stopped the illegal immigration, the people pouring through the border. I don’t like everything he’s done, but he’s done what I voted for.”

Democrats are hardly celebrating. After two years of campaigning and decades of pining for a breakthrough, some say they’re so wracked with nerves they can hardly think beyond the vote.