The race for Georgia governor is coming into clearer focus. And the electorate is nowhere near settled.

A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows two well-known contenders starting out as early front-runners in their respective primaries. But both races are dominated by a huge share of undecided voters.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms opens with 40% support among likely primary voters — a nearly 30-point advantage over her closest rival, former DeKalb CEO Michael Thurmond at 11%. Four other contenders are in single digits.

Still, roughly four in 10 Democratic voters are undecided, a sign that many Georgians simply haven’t tuned into a primary that’s still eight months away in a political ecosystem dominated by President Donald Trump.

The Republican race is even murkier. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones starts with a narrow edge among likely primary voters at 22%, buoyed by Trump’s endorsement. He’s followed by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger at 15% and Attorney General Chris Carr at 7%.

But the more revealing number might be the 55% of likely GOP voters who haven’t picked a candidate at all. That includes roughly 60% of both women and older Republicans.

The uncertainty is reflected in interviews with voters who are still weighing their options. Some are guided more by name recognition. Others are waiting to hear more from the candidates.

“It’s still too early,” said Booker Daniels of Gwinnett County. “I traditionally vote Democratic, but if there was a pragmatic party, I’d register to vote for them.”

‘Time to win’

The high number of undecided voters is little surprise for a race this early — particularly one with so many contenders competing for nearly every ideological lane, from progressive firebrand to MAGA champion, with multiple more mainstream hopefuls in between.

For Democrats trying to recapture the Governor’s Mansion for the first time in more than two decades, the primary is shaping up as a test of how sharply the party should confront Trump — and whether the path back to statewide power runs through the left or through the middle.

Across the aisle, the Republican contest is also being forged under Trump’s shadow. All three leading GOP contenders are vying for a share of his base while signaling different degrees of loyalty to his platform. How much space they have to maneuver is a central question.

The contenders haven’t yet engaged in the full-throttle campaigning that will define the first half next year. But the poll underscores the steep climb they face.

Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, the ex-Republican who is making an ideological U-turn from the Trump-aligned GOP he once helped lead, is pitching himself as the most electable option for his new party after entering the race in September.

But he’s in a distant third place at 5% in the AJC poll. He’s followed by former state Sen. Jason Esteves at 3% and state Reps. Ruwa Romman and Derrick Jackson, who both register around 1%.

The Democrats are targeting an undecided bloc that dominates every demographic group. More than a third of Black voters, nearly half of white voters and close to three-quarters of younger voters haven’t yet settled on a candidate.

Danny Williams, a McDonough plumber, said he knows the most about Bottoms but hasn’t decided. He respects her time in office, he said, but feels she “left the city hanging” when she declined to run for a second term. His vote is still up for grabs.

“It’s too early to tell. I haven’t had time to really study it,” said Williams. “But I’m looking for a track record of good political knowledge, someone who has been in office for a long time.”

Others see Bottoms’ experience differently. Columbia County resident Natasha Boles sees the Democrat as a “phenomenal mayor” who brought her poise to the national stage when she became an adviser to President Joe Biden. And she said it doesn’t hurt that Bottoms, like Boles, is a Black woman.

“I’m not saying that’s the only reason,” Boles said. “But it’s time for a change.”

Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves, Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond

Duncan, meanwhile, can find a glimmer of encouragement: Only one-third of Democratic voters say his GOP past would make them less likely to support him. Another 10% say it helps. And a 54% majority — including most Black voters — say it doesn’t matter at all.

He’ll have to work to win over voters like Stephanie Hobbs of DeKalb County, who said she’s skeptical of Duncan because of his Republican roots. She’s leaning toward Thurmond, whose decades in office includes stints as statewide labor commissioner.

“So much of my decision is about winnability,” said Hobbs. “We have to be smart. We have to get someone who is electable. It’s not time to make a statement. It’s time to win.”

‘Flat-out undecided’

On the Republican side, the unsettled electorate is even more pronounced. The 55% undecided bloc helps explain why Carr and Raffensperger are still in the race despite Trump’s early endorsement of Jones. Both camps are confident there is still room to grow.

“I have been following it a little bit. But I’m flat-out undecided,” said Allen Bone, a retired Columbus executive who described himself as a Kemp-style Republican.

That uncertainty comes with a major caveat. Jones entered the race with more than $14 million in his campaign treasury, including a $10 million loan. He has yet to fully lean into that advantage — or to saturate the airwaves reminding GOP voters of Trump’s backing.

Carr entered the race last year and is trying to carve out a lane as a more traditional Republican — someone who supports much of Trump’s policy legacy but is willing to draw boundaries. His campaign is courting voters who want conservatism without chaos. He still remains mired in single-digits, however, despite the head start.

Raffensperger, who only jumped into the race in September, is a conservative Republican willing to stand up to Trump when necessary — a stance that has earned him admiration from independents and moderates but suspicion from parts of the GOP base. He is expected to use his substantial personal wealth to expand his message.

Raffensperger may have more room than some assume.

Though some Republican activists continue to brand him a traitor, about half GOP primary voters say his refusal to “find” Trump the votes he wanted in the 2020 election will not influence their decision in the governor’s race. Another 14% say it makes them more likely to support him, while about one-third say it makes them less likely.

(From left): Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are the three leading Republican contenders for Georgia governor. (AJC)

His campaign is betting that GOP voters are weighing more than just loyalty tests — particularly those, like Candice Munk of Cobb County, who are searching for a different approach within the party.

Munk said she has always voted Republican but no longer feels aligned with the modern GOP or Trump, who she labeled a “clown.”

“Whoever is the least like Trump that’s running in the Republican Party is who I’m going to support.”

The polls of likely voters in both party primaries, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, provide the first detailed snapshot of Georgia’s midterm landscape.

One poll surveyed 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters Oct. 13—21. Another surveyed 1,000 likely GOP primary voters Oct. 15—23. Both had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.