Braves boss Alex Anthopoulos makes risky bet on Chris Sale

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos already won once by gambling on Chris Sale. The left-hander avoided the arm problems that plagued him in Boston while delivering two excellent seasons in a row for the Braves.

Now Anthopoulos is doubling down on Sale.

The Braves signed Sale to a one-year, $27 million contract extension on Tuesday that includes a $30 million team option for 2028. Next year, they’ll pay the largest salary in franchise history to a 37-year-old pitcher who’s made 20 or more starts three times in the past six seasons.

It’s a risky bet by Anthopoulos. The potential payoff is clear.

If Sale is healthy, then he’s likely to perform like a top-level starter in 2027. He won the NL Cy Young Award while making 29 starts at age 35. He was nearly as good last season, but a rib injury limited him to 20 starts.

Sale is worth $27 million if he pitches at or near the same level and makes 25 starts. Yankees right-hander Carlos Rodon will make $27 million this season. He’s the eighth-highest paid starter. Sale is at least a top-10 starter.

The potential downside of Anthopoulos’ bet on Sale is also clear. Sale’s injury history is only part of the picture. The reality is, there just haven’t been a lot of starting pitchers who were effective while logging a lot of innings at age 37.

During MLB’s divisional era (since 1965), pitchers 37 or older have pitched at least 125 innings in a season 282 times. That’s roughly 20 starts in today’s MLB.

The list includes lots of the usual suspects for longevity: knuckleballers. Players who used that pitch as a major part of their repertoire account for 39 of those seasons. That leaves 243 seasons in which pitchers 37 and up pitched at least 125 innings.

The mean ERA for those pitchers during that period was 4.00. The mean ERA for all starting pitchers since 1969 is 4.13. So, the typical conventional starter who’s pitched at least 125 innings was a little bit better than average at age 37 or older.

Sale is not typical. That’s why he’s still pitching in the big leagues. He won the NL Cy Young Award at age 35 with 177 2/3 innings pitched. All the injuries seemed to derail his path to the Hall of Fame, but two more good years might get him in.

But even some great pitchers who didn’t rely on a knuckleball saw diminished results as they grinded out innings at age 37.

Tom Glavine had a 4.52 ERA in 2003, the year he left the Braves for the Mets (Glavine bounced back with three more strong seasons). Orel Hershiser (4.24 ERA in 1996), David Wells (4.11 ERA in 2000) and Jon Lester (4.71 ERA in 2021) were ordinary at age 37.

Anthopoulos is counting on Sale to do better than those pitchers while making $27 million in 2027. The Braves are paying Sale $18 million this season. Two years for $45 million is a steal, if Sale is healthy.

The Braves won’t find a front-line starter on the market for two years at an average salary of $22.5 million. So, they are paying the front-line starter they already have to stick around. Anthopoulos has a strong track record of acquiring players who help with leadership, and he cites Sale as one of the best in that regard.

I keep adding the caveat about Sale’s health because of his age and his history of elbow and shoulder injuries. That’s why Anthopoulos was able to get Sale from the Red Sox at a discount in December 2023. It was a risky move, even considering the $17 million in cash the Braves received to offset Sale’s $27.5 million salary.

“It’s something that you either sign off on or you don’t,” Anthopoulos said at the time. “But you realize (with) anyone you acquire, there’s risk. No one can guarantee health for anybody.